دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی بررسی تجربی در مورد مسائل تورم و کارآیی مواد غذایی در بازار آینده هند - Sage 2017

Abstract

In early 2007, the Government of India (GoI) banned futures trading on some essential agro-commodities such as wheat, rice, and two varieties of lentils due to rising food inflation. However, futures trading in agricommodities such as chana (chickpea), soy oil, rubber, and potato were temporarily suspended. Professor Abhijit Sen’s committee, constituted to study the relationship between futures trading and agricultural commodities inflation, did not find sufficient evidence of inflationary impact of futures trading in India due to too short period of commodity futures trading. Also, an efficient futures market is required for the producers, traders, and consumers to hedge their price risk. Thus, in this study, we analyze the market efficiency of agricultural futures market and the effect of futures trading on inflation with special reference to chana (chickpea) market in India. This study is for a time frame of 10 years from 2005–2014. The data on closing prices of chana in futures and spot markets and futures trading volume has been collected from National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, and chana wholesale price index (WPI) monthly data from Office of the Economic Adviser, GoI. The collected data is analyzed for efficiency using Johansen cointegration approach and vector error correction (VEC) restrictions and inflationary effect using Toda Yamamoto (TY) version of Granger causality test. From the results, we find that the spot and futures prices for chana are cointegrated and unbiased, that is, the chana (chickpea) futures market is efficient. But, the futures trading of chana has inflationary impact, that is, futures trading volume of chana affects chana WPI. This research has got direct implications for government and market participants. India is the largest consumer of chana (chickpea)—the third most important pulse crop produced in the world. Thus, the inflationary impact of chana futures trading is a matter of concern for GoI.

Conclusion

Due to rising food prices, the GoI banned futures trading on some essential agro-commodities following the suggestions given by India’s parliamentary standing committee and pressure from other political parties. However, futures trading in agri-commodities like chana (chick pea) along with others were temporarily suspended. The committee headed by Professor Sen did not find sufficient evidence of inflationary impact of futures trading in India due to too short period of commodity futures trading. The rising food product prices continued to catalyze the general increase in price level leading to an average inflation rate of 12.46 percent during March 2008 to November 2011. Given that India is the largest consumer of chana (chickpea)—the third most important pulse crop produced in the world—it becomes important to study the market efficiency of chana futures market and the effect of chana futures trading on chana (chickpea) WPI inflation in India for a time frame of 10 years from January 2005 to December 2014. The collected data is analyzed for efficiency using Johansen’s cointegration approach and inflationary effect using TY version of Granger causality test. The results of Johansen’s cointegration and restriction test indicate that the spot and futures prices for chana are cointegrated and unbiased, that is, the chana (chickpea) futures market is efficient. But, TY-modified Granger causality test results show that the futures trading in chana has inflationary impact. This research has got direct implications for government and market participants. The inflationary impact of chana futures trading is a matter of concern for GoI. This study throws some challenges to the government to take necessary action to contain food inflation.