دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی فعالیت اقتصادی و بازار اعتباری رابط ها: شواهد جدیدی از ایتالیا - وایلی 2017

We investigate the interactions between the real economy and credit markets in Italy, focusing in particular on how the business cycle influences the risks of the banks’ loan portfolio (i.e. the real effect), and in turn how the credit market affects the real economy (i.e. the credit supply effect). We find evidence of both effects, with the former conveyed primarily by the creditworthiness of large firms. Moreover, we disentangle credit supply shocks due to factors inside the banking sector (the bank lending channel) from those outside the banking sector (the borrower’s balance-sheet channel), and find that both channels have a negative and significant effect on gdp growth.

6. Conclusions and Policy Implications

The aim of this research is twofold. First, we investigate the interactions between the real economy and credit markets in Italy, and, in particular, how the business cycle influences the risks of the banks’ loan portfolio (i.e. the real effect), and, in turn, how the credit market affects the real economy (i.e. the credit supply effect). In this regard, we find that a gdp shock has a significant effect on the borrowers’ default rate. This result confirms the presence of the real effect in Italy, namely the significant influence of the business cycle on the banks’ loan portfolio risks. At the same time, we also find a clear evidence of the credit supply effect, in which a reduction of credit supply has a negative impact on the business cycle. From a policy perspective, these results highlight, on the one hand, the necessity to restore an adequate level of economic growth to preserve the stability of the banking system and, on the other hand, the importance of an healthy banking system to sustain such growth. Moreover, we also disentangle the bank loans granted to firms from those granted to households and find that the credit risk of households is not influenced by the business cycle. On the contrary, the credit risk of firms is sensible to the business cycle, but small-sized enterprises seem less exposed than large firms. This result supports the adoption of a financial regulation that allows for lower capital requirements in the case of loans granted to small enterprises (i.e. the so-called SMEs Supporting Factor considered by the new CRD4/CRR).