دانلود رایگان مقاله هزینه کل مالکیت و سهم بازار خودروهای هیبریدی و الکتریکی در انگلیس، آمریکا و ژاپن

ABSTRACT

New powertrain technologies, such as Hybrid Electric Vehicles, have a price premium which can often be offset by lower running costs. Total Cost of Ownership combines these purchase and operating expenses to identify the most economical choice of vehicle. This is a valuable assessment for private and fleet purchasers alike. Studies to date have not compared Total Cost of Ownership across more than two vehicle markets or analysed historic costs. To address this gap, this research provides a more extensive Total Cost of Ownership assessment of conventional, Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles in three industrialized countries – the UK, USA (using California and Texas as case studies) and Japan – for the time period 1997–2015. Finally, the link between Hybrid Electric Vehicle Total Cost of Ownership and market share is analysed with a panel regression model. In all regions the incremental Total Cost of Ownership of hybrid and electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles has reduced from the year of introduction and 2015. Year on year Hybrid Electric Vehicles Total Cost of Ownership was found to vary least in the UK due to the absence of subsidies. Market share was found to be strongly linked to Hybrid Electric Vehicle Total Cost of Ownership through a panel regression analysis. Financial subsidies have enabled Battery Electric Vehicles to reach cost parity in the UK, California and Texas, but this is not the case for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles which haven’t received as much financial backing. This research has implications for fleet purchasers and private owners who are considering switching to a lowemission vehicle. The findings are also of interest to policymakers that are keen to develop effective measures to stimulate decarbonisation of the fleet and improve air quality.

6. Conclusion

Hybrid and electric vehicles offer a low-carbon, low-pollution alternative to conventional cars but at present the fleet share in most vehicle markets is too small to make a significant difference. This paper establishes a clear connection between historic HEV TCO and market share; with evidence from regions such as Japan and California that long term government support enables higher adoption rates. These findings are significant for policymakers in regions around the world who are under increasing pressure to decarbonise roads and improve urban air quality. Government support for low-emission vehicles clearly needs to address financial barriers if hybrid and electric vehicle market share is to break out of the niche market. Most importantly, government support needs to be tailored to include an element to account for the greater upfront initial vehicle cost and a subsidy to account for fuel price variation. It is paramount that there is a gradual phase out of incentives once technology has reached cost parity especially when oil prices are low. In many countries lack of reliable vehicle TCO information is an additional purchase barrier, this could be addressed by creating an impartial resource such that potential purchasers can at least assess their fuel saving against depreciation costs given their annual mileage and share of urban/motorway driving. With a high upfront cost and low test cycle emissions, PHEV market share is dominated by business purchase. To stimulate second hand sales as these vehicles move from the company to private car market, Mitsubishi have introduced a PCP finance scheme for second hand Outlander PHEVs [95]. In light of recent evidence illustrating the effects of urban air pollution on public health; introducing incentives for replacing diesel vehicles with hybrid/electric vehicles should be prioritised, especially in the business market which accounts for disproportionate diesel market share in the UK. An indication of lower TCO for high mileage vehicles in London (UK) is that the Toyota Prius is now the most popular private hire vehicle in London [96]. Replacing high urban-mileage diesel vehicles with petrol-HEVs such as these should be one of the first steps taken to cut urban air pollution.