دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی پیش بینی گزارش حسابرسی: کاربرد مدل غیر خطی برنولی - امرالد 2018

Abstract

Purpose – The widespread application of traditional grey model (GM) in different academic fields such as electrical engineering, education, mechanical engineering and agriculture provided the authors with an incentive to conduct the present empirical research in an accounting field, in particular, auditing practice. In this regard, the purpose of this paper is to employ the nonlinear type of the original GM to forecast the drastically changed data on audit reports, primarily due to the fact that the linear nature of GM is unable to forecast nonlinear data precisely. In essence, this paper adds value to the strand of audit report literature by examining the impact of different financial ratios on auditors’ opinion and then forecasting audit reports by employing GMs. Design/methodology/approach – The grey forecasting model is known as a system containing uncertain information presented by grey numbers, equations and matrices. The grey forecasting model is employed by using a differential equation in an uncertain system with limited data set which is suitable for smoothing discrete data. In addition, the analyses are conducted by applying a sample of top 50 listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2011-2016. Findings – The findings suggest that audit reports are most influenced by the current ratio and conversely, least influenced by the ratio of working capital turnover. Moreover, the authors argue that the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model is more precise than the nonlinear grey Bernoulli model and GM in forecasting audit reports. Originality/value – The current study may give more strength to stakeholders in order to analyse and forecast audit report.

5. Concluding remarks

The present study aims to employ the GM in an accounting field and forecast audit reports for top 50 companies listed on the TSE during 2011-2016. In this regard, the information of financial statements is analysed by using the GRA. Specifically, we used some financial ratios (liquidity, leverage, market, activity and profitability ratios) for this purpose and indicated and calculated their weights by using the Shannon entropy technique. After examining the assumptions of standard linear regression models and conducting the specification tests in panel data models, our findings provide empirical support for our hypotheses. In other words, the GM, the NGBM and the NNGBM deliver a suitable performance for forecasting audit reports. However, we rank the estimated regression models by using the MSE. The paper’s findings provide some evidence indicating that the NNGBM delivers the best forecasting performance as compared to the other models including the GM and the NGBM. This finding is consistent with Chun et al. (2010), Wang (2013) and Zhang et al. (2014). Furthermore, our results are consistent with Wang and Hsu (2008), Huang and Jane (2009) and Mohammadi and ZeinodinZade (2011) in terms of forecasting precision of GMs in comparison with other methods. Using the MSE, we also examine the level of influence that each financial ratio has on audit report. In this case, the CR yields the highest possible impact on audit report whereas the WCT indicates the lowest influence. Consistent with Spathis (2003), Gaganis et al. (2005, 2007), Sajjadi et al. (2007), Amini et al. (2011) and Jamei et al. (2013), audit reports are most influenced by the CR, DER and EPS, respectively.