دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی خودرو پیک و افزایش بازده: نگاهی نزدیک تر به روند مسافرت با خودرو در بریتانیا - الزویر 2017

abstract

This paper uses econometric analysis of aggregate time-series data to explore how different factors have influenced the demand for car travel in Great Britain since 1970 and how the rebound effect has changed over that time. Our results suggest that changes in income, the fuel cost of driving and the level of urbanisation largely explain travel trends over this period – with recent reductions in car travel (peak car) being driven by a combination of the rising fuel cost of driving, increased urbanisation and the economic difficulties created by the 2008 financial crisis. We find some evidence that the proportion of licensed drivers has influenced aggregate travel trends, but no evidence that growing income inequality and the diffusion of ICT technology have played a role. Our results also suggest that the rebound effect from improved fuel efficiency has averaged 26% over this period and that the magnitude of this effect has increased over time. However, methodological and data limitations constrain the level of confidence that we can have in these results.

5. Summary and conclusion

This paper has explored how different factors have influenced the demand for car travel in Great Britain since 1970 and how the rebound effect has changed over that time. Our results suggest that changes in income, the fuel cost of driving and the level of urbanisation largely explain travel trends over this period – with peak car being driven by a combination of the rising fuel cost of driving, increased urbanisation and the economic difficulties created by the 2009 recession. We find some evidence that the proportion of licensed drivers has influenced aggregate travel trends, but no evidence that growing income inequality and the diffusion of ICT technology have played a role. While our results do not wholly support Bastian et al’s contention that ‘‘... GDP per capita and fuel price are able to explain most of the trends in vehicle kilometres per capita...” (Bastian et al., 2016), they are consistent with their argument that travel trends amongst different socio-economic groups have partially cancelled out. Our results are also consistent with the claim that economic recovery and low fuel prices could encourage renewed traffic growth – particularly since we find the income elasticity of car travel to be significantly larger than the price elasticity.

Our results also suggest that the rebound effect from improved fuel efficiency averaged 26% over this period – which is consistent with the results of other studies. Contrary to expectations, we find some evidence that the magnitude of this effect has increased over time, and is now more than twice as large as it was in 1970. This contradicts the results of two US studies (Greene, 2012; Small and Van Dender, 2007), but it is important to note that: first, our estimates are based upon the fuel cost per kilometre and hence reflect responses to both fuel efficiency improvements and changes in fuel prices; and second, the variation in fuel cost per kilometre has been much smaller in GB than in the US over this period. In any event, this result reinforces the argument that rebound effects should be taken account of when estimating the impact of policies such as fuel efficiency standards.