دانلود رایگان مقاله یک سیستم پشتیبانی تصمیم گیری برای جنگل های مدیترانه ای

abstract

Mediterranean forests contain a relevant biological diversity and are relevant for local economy. However, they are subject to various risks, particularly the risk of forest fires. This turns the critical decisions of forest managers, affecting both the long-term future of the forest and daily activities, to be difficult. To simulate decisions, and help managers and policy makers, a decision support system, which integrates the biological, environmental and economic management perspectives of agricultural and forest areas, was developed and considers the activities existing in the territory. The decision support system considers the characteristics of the biophysical units that comprise the territorial study area, production technologies and conservation of agro-forestry goods and preferences of managers or stakeholders. The proposed approach was applied in a pilot Forest Intervention Zone (FIZ) located within the Algarve region inner land. The results show that the decision support system proposed is an important tool for managing the territory and for implementing the manager’s decisions.

6. Conclusion

This paper proposes a decision support system that may help in the sustainable and efficient management of agro-forestry areas with multiple agents, stakeholders and different criteria. The decision support system proposed integrates three main modules, which comprise a management module, a preferences module and a location module that locates the activities in precise plots.

The location module represents an effective way for allocating areas of agro-forest activities in precise plots considering the possibility of making efficient decisions concerning the maximisation of economic results and environmental aspects related to biodiversity and minimisation of fire risk; social aspects are also considered in this framework, since the preferences of different stakeholders are introduced in the decision making process.

Results depend on the decision support system context of application. Thus, specific socio-economic and biophysical conditions, such as land use, slope, proximity to roads’ network, density of agricultural and forestry pathways and demographic density surely influence both forest fire and economic losses (also in urban areas). The application ofthe decision support system to theAlgarve inland region, in southern Portugal, showed that economic result and risk have a greater trade-off than economic result and biodiversity. In this context, itis also importantto underline thatthe forestry activity, in a depressed area such as the Algarve inland, with severe depopulation and aging problems, is still an economic activity with an interesting relation with the other sectors of economy.