دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی تحلیل زنجیره علت از حادثه انفجار گاز معدن ذغال سنگ بر اساس مدل شبکه بیزی - اشپرینگر 2018

Abstract

In order to prevent coal mining gas explosion accidents, it is considerable to understand the conditions and probabilities of casing process. This paper studied the cause of coal mining accidents and proposed a cause inference model of coal mining gas explosion accident based on Bayesian network. Firstly, the nodes and their domain in Bayesian network are determined by cause analysis. Secondly, we construct the Bayesian network through the accident samples and determine the conditional probability, and then attempt to build our Bayesian accident model. Finally, a GeNIe simulation software is adopted to analyze and verify the feasibility and effectiveness of our constructed model, and obtain the cause chain of coalmine gas explosion accident. The research results show that the inadequate technical management in the management elements has a relatively large impact on the accident. Technical management is not in place will result in many physical factors such as ventilation, electrical and other anomalies, and further cause coalmine gas explosion accident. Therefore, technical management should be strengthen to raise safety awareness and reduce equipment system abnormalities, to reduce such accidents and the hazards caused by explosion accident.

5 Conclusion

In this paper, Bayesian network is used to establish a causal analysis model of coal mine gas explosion. The direct impact factors of gas explosion accidents are gas accumulation, electrical without explosion protection, frictional impact and open flame. It is very important and has a greater significance for preventing and controlling coal mine gas explosion. The Bayesian network model is validated by GeNIe software. The test experiment shows that the model has high prediction accuracy and can be used to effectively analyze the causal factors of accidents. Then, the GeNIe software is used to calculate the Bayesian network model. Starting from the two conditions of gas accumulation and fire source that the gas explosion accident must possess, the most likely causes of the coalmine gas explosion accidents are obtained. The most probable cause of the coal-mine gas explosion accident shows that the inadequate technical management in the management elements has a relatively large impact on the accident. Technical management is not in place will result in many physical factors such as ventilation, electrical and other anomalies, and further occur coalmine gas explosion accident. Therefore, technical management should be strengthened to raise safety awareness and reduce equipment system abnormalities, to reduce such accidents and the hazards caused by explosion accident.