دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی تجزیه و تحلیل SWOT مبتنی بر ANP و تاپسیس فازی - نشریه الزویر

ABSTRACT

Energy planning involves a perpetual process of reevaluating alternative energy strategies. Authorities responsible for energy planning and management have to adjust their strategies according to new and improved alternative solutions based on the sustainability criteria. In this study, we propose an integrated hybrid methodology for the analysis of Turkey’s energy sector using Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis, Analytic Network Process (ANP) process, and weighted fuzzy Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to formulate and holistically analyze the energy strategy alternatives and priorities. The methodology proposed in this study allowed identifying the relevant criteria and sub-criteria using a SWOT analysis. Then, ANP approach, which is one of the popular multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods, is employed to determine the weights of each SWOT factors and sub-factors. Finally, fuzzy TOPSIS methodology is conducted to prioritize alternative energy strategies. We discuss the obtained results for the development of long-range alternative energy strategies. The results showed that turning the country into an energy hub and an energy terminal by effectively using the geo-strategic position within the framework of the regional cooperation is the most important priority. On the other hand, using the nuclear energy technologies within the energy supply strategies found to be the least favored priority.

8. Discussion and conclusions

In recent years, strategic energy planning problems have been a hot topic in the literature. Energy decisions are very crucial for governments because of their potential impact (positive or negative) on many facets of the governance and well-being/prominence of the country as a whole. Due to its strategic importance, the governments are trying very hard to effectively and accurately align and manage their energy policies. In order for the governments to take advantage of the opportunities and at the same time to eliminate or mitigate (minimize the impact of) the negative outcomes, they need to diligently and carefully plan (and continuously re-plan) their energy policies, not just in short terms but also at the strategic level, in order to forecast and address the ever so rapidly changing energy market conditions.

The government of Turkey put forward some rather dramatic/ futuristic energy policies, strategies, and regulations to address the increasing energy demand and to avoid possible energy bottlenecks in the middle-to-long term. In order to reduce energy dependence to foreign sources, some critical implementations have been carried out. The Vision 2023 is one of the major energy policies developed by/for Turkey to reach the determined energy targets. According to this roadmap, Turkey aims to build 600 MW geothermal capacity, 3000 MW solar power capacity and 20,000 MW wind power capacity, and have them all in operation by 2023. It should be noted that technological investments are critically important along with the natural resources (i.e., climatic conditions) in order to utilize the available energy sources.

With the study, reported in this paper, we proposed an integrated framework for the Turkey’s energy sector using the SWOT analysis augmented with the ANP methodology to obtain criteria weights, and fuzzy TOPSIS methodology to prioritize alternative energy strategies. According to the results of the SWOT-ANP weighted fuzzy TOPSIS analytic methodology, turning the country into an energy hub and an energy terminal by using the geo-strategic position effectively within the framework of the regional cooperation processes (SO2) ranks as the first priority. The main reason that makes this strategy very important is the Turkey’s strategic and geopoetical location. Turkey is a natural “energy bridge” between the major oil producing regions in the Middle East and Caspian Sea on the one hand and consumer markets in Europe on the other. This area is not only geographically but also economically very important. For this reason, the study results are in line with the target of becoming both a hub and a terminal in the transportation of the Middle Eastern and Central Asian energy/resource production to the world/European markets.