دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی ترکیبی از تولید برق پایدار برای ایران: رویکرد فرآیند شبکه تحلیل فازی - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

Electricity supply in Iran has been heavily dependent on fossil fuels. In light of the government’s emphasis on reducing the consumption of conventional energy sources, combined with the worldwide attention to environmental issues, it is necessary for Iran to revise its current energy mix policy in power sector and move towards a more diversified energy portfolio. This paper aims to contribute to energy management studies through developing a new framework for assessing the mix of energy sources for producing electricity in Iran from the perspective of sustainable development. Multiple qualitative and quantitative criteria with conflicting nature need to be taken into consideration for evaluating competing energy options for electricity production in Iran. In order to address this issue and also to consider the complex interdependence among criteria and alternatives, this paper adopts a fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) method. Seven criteria and nineteen subcriteria are defined and structured in the form of benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (BOCR) to evaluate the share of six energy resources. The results indicate that the best energy mix for the power sector in Iran is as follows: renewable energies (31.6%), natural gas (25%), coal (12.3%), fuel oil (12.6%), nuclear (8.7%) and gas oil (9.7%).

Conclusion and policy implications

This paper proposes a new framework for assessing the mix of energy sources for generating electricity in Iran from the perspective of sustainable development. A group fuzzy ANP model is used to assess and compare six different competing energy options against various economic, technical, social and environmental criteria. In order to address the uncertainties and imprecisions inherent in this complex decision making problem, fuzzy linguistic assessment variables are utilized in the pairwise comparison process. Compared to the traditional approaches for assessing electricity generation mix, the proposed framework has several advantages: First, this framework provides a more comprehensive picture of influencing factors in energy mix assessment by simultaneously accounting for multiple evaluation criteria from different perspectives. This study brings together a broad range of factors that have been scattered across many studies, along with some factors that are idiosyncratic for the context of Iran. Second, this framework enables to taking the complex interrelationships among criteria into account. Third, adopting fuzzy logic in evaluations by employing linguistic variables enables handling uncertainties in the process of decision-making. Fourth, the proposed framework allows for incorporating the judgments of multiple decision makers and to systematically integrate them to come up with an assessment that represents the group’s preferences.