دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی امنیت اجتماعی و پس انداز: یک به روز رسانی - Sage 2018

Abstract

Typical neoclassical life-cycle models predict that Social Security has a large and negative effect on private savings. We review this theoretical literature by constructing a model where individuals face uninsurable longevity risk and differ by wage earnings, while Social Security provides benefits as a life annuity with higher replacement rates for the poor. We use the model to generate numerical examples that confirm the standard result. Using several benefit and tax changes from the 1970s and 1980s as natural experiments, we investigate the empirical relationship between Social Security and private savings and find little evidence to support the predictions from the theoretical model. We explore possible reasons for the lack of strong empirical findings.

Conclusions

In this article, we review the theoretical implications of Social Security on private savings, establishing that Social Security strongly crowds out private saving behavior. With these theoretical predictions in mind, we empirically evaluate the effect of Social Security on savings and insurance purchasing behavior using three different policy changes. Despite the strong theoretical predictions, we find little evidence to support that Social Security crowds out private savings. We posit that lack of knowledge about Social Security program details in general or the specific implications of the policy change could mitigate any effect of the policy on individual saving behavior.