دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی شبیه سازی زنجیره تامین زمین سبز بر اساس پویایی سیستم و بهینه سازی سیاست - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

The dependence of human beings on natural resources is long-standing, and land resource is a crucial part of these natural resources. In recent years, land pollution and resource shortage have severely affected the normal lives of individuals. There is a growing appreciation of the need for studying the green supply chain of land. In this study, the land green supply chain is divided into subsystems of technology (T), energy (E), environment (E), and economy (E), which construct TEEE dynamic model. Based on the model, we simulate the develop trend of technology, energy, environment, and economy in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2020. Moreover, we find out optimal polices to realize economic and environmental objectives of 2020 of Shandong Province, and get the optimization scheme for environmental policy as below: water quota for farmland irrigation is 2780 m2 per hectare, quota for urban water consumption is 33 m3 per capita per year, quota for industrial water consumption is 8 m3 per CNY10000 and unqualified rate of industrial waste water is 1%. If regulating and controlling as per such objectives, total industrial population will be reduced to 99.87 million, total industrial output value will reach CNY 44.68 trillion and environmental pollution degree will get down to 1.153.

Conclusions and policy suggestions

Through the SD model analysis, it is possible to completely simulate nonlinear and systematic complex problems and integrate the four modules of economy, land, technology, and environment. The relationships between variables completely follow the results of the system and were not set to a specific function relationship in advance. This significantly contributed toward enhancing the predictability of the model. In addition, we applied system dynamics to predict and simulate the land supply chain, and we clearly understood what decisions can be made and what kind of policy results can be produced. By planning data envelopment analysis, policymakers can better understand how to improve land utilization efficiency to solve the land shortage issue. Compared with research of traditional supply chain, emphasis of this paper lies in “green”, that is, influence of each link during land use on environment. By establishing TEEE model, all indexes that relevant to land use are included into technology, economy, energy and environment subsystems. SD model is used to combine these four subsystems and their indexes to simulate practical production processes and policies. For green supply chain of land, resource, environment, technology and economy are all sensitive restrictive factors. Through screening of different factors and combination of them, different schemes can be formed for analysis. To find the optimal policy measures, we used DEA model to analyze the efficiency of input and output of TEEE system. The higher the efficiency value, the better the effects of policy.