دانلود رایگان مقاله پیش بینی علم تحلیل چرخه حیات استخراج متن خوشه بندی

abstract

Science foresight comprises a range of methods to analyze past, present and expected research trends, and uses this information to predict the future status of different fields of science and technology. With the ability to identify high-potential development directions, science foresight can be a useful tool to support the management and planning of future research activities. Science foresight analysts can choose from a rather large variety of approaches. There is, however, relatively little information about how the various approaches can be applied in an effective way. This paper describes a three-step methodological framework for science foresight on the basis of published research papers, consisting of (i) life-cycle analysis, (ii) text mining and (iii) knowledge gap identification by means of automated clustering. The three steps are connected using the research methodology of the research papers, as identified by text mining. The potential of combining these three steps in one framework is illustrated by analyzing scientific literature on wind catchers; a natural ventilation concept which has received considerable attention from academia, but with quite low application in practice. The knowledge gaps that are identified show that the automated foresight analysis is indeed able to find uncharted research areas. Results from a sensitivity analysis further show the importance of using full-texts for text mining instead of only title, keywords and abstract. The paper concludes with a reflection on the methodological framework, and gives directions for its intended use in future studies.

3. Description of the application study

In this section, the framework presented in Section 2 is demonstrated with respect to wind catchers; a sustainable natural ventilation system for buildings. 3.1. Wind catchers Finding solutions that enable cost-effective operation of buildings with good comfort conditions and less negative impact on the environment is identified as one of the most compelling challenges of the 21st century (Kolokotsa et al., 2011; IEA, 2013). Research and development of innovative building systems is expected to play an important role in facilitating this transition towards sustainable building design (Loonen et al., 2014). Natural ventilation strategies have the potential to become a viable alternative for energy-intensive air-conditioning systems, but new approaches are needed to lead to wider adoption. Inspiration for new concepts can be found by looking at traditional design strategies such as the “wind catcher”, which was used to provide natural ventilation and passive cooling in hot and arid regions of Iran and neighboring countries (Saadatian et al., 2012). The cooling performance of both ancient and modern wind catchers has been analyzed and optimized by several researchers, using experimental, computational or analytical methods (Saadatian et al., 2012; Montazeri and Azizian, 2009; Montazeri, 2011; Montazeri and Azizian, 2008; Montazeri et al., 2010; Bahadori et al., 2008; Soutullo et al., 2011; Hassan and Lee, 2014; Su et al., 2008; Calautit et al., 2013; Calautit et al., 2014). In addition to academic contexts, industry has also paid attention to the development of these systems. These technology transfer activities have led to the invention of multiple new commercial wind catcher systems that meet the requirements of modern-day building design (Hughes et al., 2012). However, considering the relatively slow uptake in practice, it can be argued that further research and development is still needed to fully utilize the potential of wind catchers.