5. Discussion and conclusion
This paper documents a number of previously unknown facts about intra-family patterns in college enrollment. First, many younger siblings apply to and enroll in the same colleges as their older siblings. Second, even controlling for a rich set of covariates, older siblings’ college enrollment decisions are strongly predictive of their younger siblings’ decisions about whether to enroll and which quality of college to enroll in. Third, these strong relationships between siblings’ college choices vary little by income, race or proximity to public 4-year colleges. Fourth, younger siblings are more likely to follow the college choices of their older siblings the more they resemble each other in terms of academic skill, age and gender. These facts, taken as a whole, are consistent with the possibility that the college decisions of older siblings in- fluence the college decisions of younger siblings. There is, however, a potential non-causal explanation for these patterns, namely that the covariates available to us for this analysis are insufficient to control for fundamental differences between families that determine college enrollment choices. These could include differences in educational preferences, information about college or the labor market, or access to credit. It may be that siblings simply have the same preferences for factors such as college quality and distance from home that result from a shared environment. If the available covariates do not completely absorb such inter-family differences, then the strong relationship between siblings’ choices may be partly picking up those unobserved differences. If so, older siblings’ college choices reveal something about a family’s type, in which case it is unsurprising that such choices then predict those of younger siblings.