دانلود رایگان مقاله رابطه علیت متغیر زمانی و غیر خطی رشد گردشگری

Abstract

This paper develops a panel smooth transition vector error correction model to investigate the economic growth-tourism causality. This model simultaneously resolves the estimation problems of nonlinearity, heterogeneity and endogeneity. Empirical results support that the causality is bi-directional, nonlinear, time- and country-varying in both the long run and short run. The real interest rate causes threshold effects on the link between growth and tourism. High levels of real interest rates lead to a longer time for the growth and tourism to return back to their long run equilibrium values; however, they strengthen the positive contribution from one of the variables to the other variable in the short run. Macroeconomic environment and policy are key factors that influence the threshold effects.

Conclusion

The prospect of a nonlinear relationship between tourism and economic growth has emerged in the academic paradigm, and the tourism-growth literature has become increasingly open to the possibility of nonlinear relationships existing between the variables. However, the literature on the nonlinear causality between tourism and economic growth remains relatively limited. This paper analyses the dynamic relationship between tourism receipts and economic growth. By applying the panel smooth transition vector error correction model, we explore whether tourism leads, on the long- and short-run, to economic growth, or, alternatively, economic expansion drives tourism growth, or indeed a bi-directional relationship exists between the two variables. Our result shows that there exists a bi-directional causality between tourism and growth in both the short run and long run. However, the causality is nonlinear and varies with time and across countries, and depends on the level of real interest rates in individual countries for each period. High real interest rates are not favorable for economic growth and tourism receipts to quickly adjust towards their levels of long run equilibrium; however, it strengthens the short run effect from growth to tourism and vice versa. In addition, macroeconomic conditions and the corresponding executed policies play an important role in the bi-directional causality between growth and tourism. Two empirical limitations can be further improved to investigate the robustness of the empirical results as the observations are sufficient. The first restriction is the trade-off between the number of countries and the length of time period. The second one is the ignorance of whether there exist the spatial spillover effects of the causality between economic growth and tourism activity among the sample countries.