دانلود رایگان مقاله مدل سازی نفوذ بازار لوازم کارآمد انرژی در بخش مسکونی

abstract

The aim of this research is to model the market penetration of energy efficient appliances in the residential sector. The analysis focuses on six major appliances e refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, and ranges e to forecast their market penetration and market share during the years 2012 e2050. Models were developed for each category using 22 years of historical data related to population, household income, immigration, and appliance price. These variables were selected based on the statistical tests of twelve macroeconomic variables. The market shares of high efficiency appliances were analyzed based on the related capital costs, operating costs, lifetime, and incentive. The results show that in Alberta the market penetration growth rate of dishwashers is higher than that of all other appliances, with a projected 30.52% increase between 2012 and 2050. The modeling results also indicate that the average annual energy consumption by refrigerators will decrease from 560.9 kWh in 2012 to 460.8 kWh in 2050, and this decrease indicates an annual energy efficiency improvement of 0.47%. In addition, the effect of an incentive on adopting high energy efficiency appliances and ultimately on energy efficiency improvement in Alberta is more effective for dishwashers and clothes washers.

5. Conclusions

This research demonstrates the results of market penetration modeling of high energy efficient appliances in Alberta's residential sector for the years 2012e2050. The models were implemented in an observational combined method based on considerations of energy system parameters, econometric diffusion models, and market share functions.

Despite the fact that the price of electricity is not high in Alberta, an increase in average electricity price could improve the market penetration of high efficiency appliances in the residential sector. However, in Alberta, government incentives to encourage people to buy higher energy efficient technologies are more effective than electricity pricing policies. The effects of technology improvement on energy efficiency are greater for almost all appliances in the first years of the study period. Clothes dryers and refrigerators have a higher potential for improving household sector energy efficiency and can achieve up to 67.5% and 64.2% greater efficiency by 2050 than their average efficiencies in 2012. A comparison of our investigation with earlier studies shows that using electricity and appliance prices in modeling helps achieve results that are more reliable. Using prices in our research helped achieve higher level of accuracy in modeling e up to 93% in our developed model for clothes washers. Finally, this study developed an approach to model the market penetration of high efficient appliances and the impacts of changes of macroeconomic parameters, appliance price, electricity price, and incentives on average energy efficiency improvement for major residential sector appliances the in other provinces or countries.