دانلود رایگان مقاله گزارش دهی بر اعتبار فرآیند ارزیابی ریسک برخورد پرنده برای فرودگاه

abstract

Birdstrikes are a major hazard to aviation; costing millions of pounds a year in damage and delays, as well as occasional hull losses and loss of life. The numbers and species of birds on and around airfields therefore need to be managed. To aid this process, airport staff often use risk assessments to identify which bird species cause the greatest risk and use the outcome to target their bird control effort. To this end, a number of national and international regulators, airports and other organisations recommend, or use, a derivation of a risk assessment process first published in 2006. This was developed using the UK Civil Aviation Authority's birdstrike database, employing data collected between 1976 and 1996. The risk assessment process relies on using the proportion of reported strikes that cause damage to the aircraft as a proxy for the likely severity of the outcome of strike incidents, so any change in the relative level of reporting of damaging and non-damaging strikes may significantly bias the results. The implementation of mandatory birdstrike reporting by the UK CAA in 2004 led to a significant increase in the number of strikes reported. If this involved a disproportionate increase in the number of non-damaging compared to damaging incidents reported, it may have impacted on the accuracy of the risk assessment process. This paper examines how differential reporting of damaging and non-damaging strikes can impact on the risk assessment process. It shows that changes in reporting practices since the original risk assessment was developed have impacted on the apparent birdstrike risk at UK airports, giving a false impression of increasing risk over the period. It makes recommendations for how the process can be better adapted to cope with such changes in the future, and how it should be modified for use in countries with different reporting regimes to that in the UK

3. Calculation

3.1. Determining if the number of strikes and the proportion of damaging strikes reported has changed over time Data from 1976 to 1996, the final 7 years of the period used by Allan (2006), is still available for analysis. This can be compared with the following 8 years (1997e2004) during which the reporting requirements were similar, and for the 9 years after the mandating of birdstrike reporting in 2004 (2005e2013). Table 3 below shows the overall total and number per year of all confirmed strikes identified to species and all damaging strikes identified to species that were reported during these three time periods.