دانلود رایگان مقاله احتمال خطای انسانی در فعالیت تعمیر و نگهداری سیستم های دریایی

abstract

Background: Maintenance operations on-board ships are highly demanding. Maintenance operations are intensive activities requiring high manemachine interactions in challenging and evolving conditions. The evolving conditions are weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress. For example, extreme weather condition affects seafarers’ performance, increasing the chances of error, and, consequently, can cause injuries or fatalities to personnel. An effective human error probability model is required to better manage maintenance on-board ships. The developed model would assist in developing and maintaining effective risk management protocols. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a human error probability model considering various internal and external factors affecting seafarers’ performance. Methods: The human error probability model is developed using probability theory applied to Bayesian network. The model is tested using the data received through the developed questionnaire survey of >200 experienced seafarers with >5 years of experience. The model developed in this study is used to find out the reliability of human performance on particular maintenance activities. Results: The developed methodology is tested on the maintenance of marine engine’s cooling water pump for engine department and anchor windlass for deck department. In the considered case studies, human error probabilities are estimated in various scenarios and the results are compared between the scenarios and the different seafarer categories. The results of the case studies for both departments are also compared. Conclusion: The developed model is effective in assessing human error probabilities. These probabilities would get dynamically updated as and when new information is available on changes in either internal (i.e., training, experience, and fatigue) or external (i.e., environmental and operational conditions such as weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress) factors.
2017, Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute. Published by Elsevier. This is an open access

The negative influence of internal and external factors affects seafarers’ performance and plays an important role in making errors during maintenance activities on-board. To estimate the HEP accurately, it is necessary to consider interdependency between performance-affecting factors and seafarers’ actions. The methodology developed in this study is capable of representing complex dependencies among the performance-affecting factors and seafarers’ actions to include uncertainty in modeling. Moreover, the developed methodology is better illustrated as conditional dependencies by means of direct causal arcs among dependent variables. CPTs for environmental and operational factors are used in the developed methodology by conducting a questionnaire survey among experienced seafarers to estimate the HEP more accurately. The developed methodology is effective for both HEP estimation and updating in the light of new information. Therefore, the developed methodology is a superior technique to traditional HEP assessment techniques. The developed methodology is applied to estimate the HEP in various reallife scenarios, as demonstrated in the case studies. The case study results show that category “A” chief engineer/captain (highest rank) with 10 years of experience and duration of voyage of 1 month has the lowest HEP, and category “D” fourth engineer/ third officer with 5 years’ experience and duration of voyage of 4 months has the highest HEP. HEPs fluctuate with changes in internal or external factors. According to the HEP result, the captain or chief engineer can select the particular category of seafarers who are most reliable to perform the maintenance activities in a particular scenario in order to reduce the HEP. Moreover, the HEPs estimated for the maintenance activities of marine operations will help in taking remedial actions to reduce the HEPs and shipping accidents.