دانلود رایگان مقاله ارزیابی خروج ترن از خط برای ایمنی راه آهن و تحلیل ریسک

abstract

Derailments are the most common type of train accident in the United States. They cause damage to infrastructure, rolling stock and lading, disrupt service, and have the potential to cause casualties, and harm the environment. Train safety and risk analysis relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood. Derailment rate – the number of derailments normalized by traffic exposure – is a useful statistic to estimate the likelihood of a derailment. Despite its importance, derailment rate analysis using multiple factors has not been previously developed. In this paper, we present an analysis of derailment rates on Class I railroad mainlines based on data from the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration and the major freight railroads. The point estimator and confidence interval of train and car derailment rates are developed by FRA track class, method of operation and annual traffic density. The analysis shows that signaled track with higher FRA track class and higher traffic density is associated with a lower derailment rate. The new accident rates have important implications for safety and risk management decisions, such as the routing of hazardous materials.

6. Conclusion

This paper describes an analysis of train and railcar derailment rates on Class I railroad mainline tracks in the United States. FRA track class has been the principal factor used previously to quantitatively assess, location-specific derailment rate in railtransportationsafety andrisk studies for over threedecades. The analysis described here accounts for two new factors (method of operation and annual traffic density) that were also found to have a strong and significant effect. The U.S. Class 1 railroads’ derailment rate has continued to decline since the data for this study were collected (Liu, 2015) and the derailment rate in 2014 was estimated to be about a third lower than the average rates presented here (Barkan et al., 2015). The methodology described here can be employed to update these statistics when appropriate. The statistical results can be used for more accurate train safety and risk analyses,thereby enabling more precise estimates of local and route-specific risk, and contributing to development of more effective risk reduction strategies to improve rail safety.