دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی ارزیابی امنیت زیست محیطی جنگلداری در چین: ایجاد یک سیستم پشتیبانی تصمیم - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

The development of modern science and technology tends to accompany environmental crisis and ecological degradation. And the evaluation of the security condition of the forestry ecosystem has become an urgent task. This paper details the development of a decision support system (the FESEDSS), which was built to provide a range of actors with an effective tool for the evaluation and governance of forestry ecological security in China. The FESEDSS considers multiple factors through a general decision-support framework, making possible the calculation of ecological security indexes and relative indexes for the forestry ecosystem and its three subsystems (forest, wetlands and desert) at both the national and provincial level. The system integrates econometric models, mathematical methods, geographic information systems and a dynamic database, providing users with an understanding of spatiotemporal patterns and regional differences in the ecological security of the forestry ecosystem and its three subsystems in China’s 31 provinces. Results generated using the FESEDSS and addressing the period 1999–2012 demonstrate a positive change in forest ecological security condition and a negative change in wetland and desert ecological security. Spatially, the ecological security of the forest subsystem was shown to have improved significantly in eastern and central China, while in the western region it experienced degradation. The ecological security of wetland ecosystems performed well in the southwest region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; and desert ecological security was shown to be of a higher standard in south of Qinling-Huaihe Line than in the northern regions of the country. The overall forestry ecological security condition (which integrates the three subsystems) demonstrated an upward trend with some fluctuations, with high values generally being located in the south and low values in the north of the country. Finally, the paper also discusses performance, uncertainty, and implementation challenges, as well as detailing potential extensions of the FESEDSS. The paper lays a foundation to the national forestry ecological security evaluation and monitoring.

Conclusions

A forestry ecological security evaluation and decision support system (FESEDSS) was developed to calculate comprehensive evaluation values for ecological security and a relative index of the forestry ecosystem (a system which includes forest, wetland and desert ecosystems) at both the national and provincial level. The FESEDSS uses a forestry ecological security evaluation index system in order to consider multiple factors within a general decision-support framework. In addition, the system integrates econometric models, mathematical methods, GIS and dynamic databases. The FESEDSS framework facilitates convenient access to the evolution rules and spatiotemporal patterns of national forestry ecological security, and provides a basis for making decisions that advance the improvement of national forestry ecological security. In this manner, it accesses the full potential of the ecosystem to protect the environment. As the world’s largest developing country, China cannot sacrifice its environment to the goal of economic development. Instead, the country needs to stick to a path of sustainable development, in order to simultaneously achieve economic efficiency, environmental protection and social benefits. In this way, China ought to strengthen the management of the forestry ecosystem during the current phase of economic development and ensure the security of the forestry ecosystem and the retention of a high-quality ecological environment for economic development and human welfare. In the future, the functions of the FESEDSS can be expanded: its evaluation index system can be perfected, its databases can be enlarged and it can be used to put forestry ecological security evaluation into practice in ways that accord with the local condition of investigation areas. With ongoing database updates and program adjustments, the FESEDSS can promote the development and improvement of research into forestry ecosystem security.