دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی کمک سرمایه فکری به پیش بینی ورشکستگی - امرالد 2018

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore whether intellectual capital affects the probability that a particular firm will default. The authors also test whether including intellectual capital performance in bankruptcy prediction models improves their predictive ability. Design/methodology/approach – Using a sample of US public companies from the period stretching from 1985 to 2015, the authors test whether intellectual capital performance reduces the probability of bankruptcy. The authors use the VAIC as an aggregate measure of corporate intellectual capital performance. Findings – The findings show that the intellectual capital performance is negatively associated with the probability of default. The findings also indicate that the bankruptcy prediction models that include intellectual capital have a superior predictive ability over the standard models. Research limitations/implications – This paper contributes to prior research on intellectual capital and firm performance. To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study to show that the benefits of intellectual capital extend from superior performance to long-term financial stability. The research can also contribute to bankruptcy studies. By using a time frame covering decades, the findings suggest that intellectual capital performance measures can be included in bankruptcy prediction models and can effectively complement traditional performance measures. Originality/value – This paper highlights that intellectual capital is associated with long-term financial stability and a lower bankruptcy risk. Firms realising the potential of their intellectual capital can produce a virtuous circle between higher performance and greater financial stability.

6. Conclusions

In this paper, the authors hypothesise and find that intellectual capital performance is negatively associated with the probability that a firm will default. The authors also find that the bankruptcy prediction models that include intellectual capital performance have a superior predictive ability over standard bankruptcy prediction models.

This paper contributes to prior research on intellectual capital and firm performance. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to investigate how intellectual capital affects the likelihood of bankruptcy. The findings suggest that intellectual capital performance is associated with lower probabilities of future default. The benefits of higher intellectual capital performance extend from superior future performances to long-term financial stability. Increased performance allows the timely payment of passive interests and debt, which reduces a firm’s credit risk and lowers the cost of debt applied by bond holders and external lenders. A lower credit risk also boosts a firm’s profitability and value.

This study shows that intellectual capital indicators can play a key role in assessing a firm’s future solvency. In this respect, the research contributes to bankruptcy prediction studies. Prior bankruptcy prediction literature suggests that traditional financial ratios do not fully capture the contribution of intellectual capital to value creation (Beaver et al., 2005). Nevertheless, measures of intellectual capital are neglected in financial analysis and bankruptcy prediction. The findings show that intellectual capital performance indicators can help to develop better models to predict the probability of a future default.