دانلود رایگان مقاله چگونه قیمت نفت خام تقسیم کار جهانی را شکل می دهد

abstract

Our work sheds new light on the role of oil prices in shaping the world economy by investigating flows of goods and services through global value chains between 1960 and 2011, by means of Markov Chain and network analysis. We show that over that time period the international division of labor and trade patterns are tightly linked to the price of oil. We observe a remarkably high negative correlation (0.85) between the oil price and the share of cyclical value, i.e. the share of value embodied in raw materials and intermediate products that are conserved across direct and indirect relationships. We demonstrate that this correlation does not depend on the balance of payments nor on the nominal value of trade or trade agreements; it is instead linked to the way Global Value Chains (GVCs) shape global trade. The cycling indexes show two majors structural breaks in terms of distance and length of GVCs, hinting at two phases of the recent globalization dynamics, sustained by two major transport modes. Our study suggests that transport played an important structural role in shaping GVCs, unveiling the deep, long-term impact of energy costs on the structure and connectivity of the global economy. In more theoretical term, our results indicate that the production structure could be approached as an energy system, forged by the efficiency in the transport sector. Understanding the role of oil in a globalized economy is of paramount importance for decoupling of economic growth from energy growth and transitioning toward a de-carbonized economy.

4. Concluding remarks

Global trade, in the age of the second globalization, has entangled national economies, by interconnecting production sites internationally, in a fashion that is still underestimated [21,24] [20,23]. This historical process of vertical integration has been producing global value chains (GVCs) wherein goods traveling across countries augment their value at every stage of production [24]. The novelty of our work is that we investigated this cyclic path of value across countries by means of network theory and Markov chain theory on a global scale and a very long time scale. In this way, we show that over a longer time period the oil price has a striking correlation with the structure of trade, globally. A correlation that increases with the scope of the analysis, from first order properties of the network (one link distance), to higher order properties. The worldwide sum of country trade imbalances show a weak correlation of 0.32. The correlation increases by engulfing bilateral relationships between countries on a global scale (reciprocity, 0.70). Finally, the highest correlation, up to 0.85, is observed when we involve more complex patterns at the global level. By means of statistical mechanics of networks (exponential random graphs) we were able to demonstrate that this remarkable correlation can only be explained with higher-than-one order properties of the network, indicating that GVCs and structure of trade are intimately linked to oil price. We hypothesize that this tight relationship points to the role of transports in determining, in the long run, the extent and the way production sites connect internationally. By looking closely at the single-country cycling index (Fig. 4) and by dissecting the global cycling according to different distance thresholds (Fig. S1), we identified two structural breaks and two phases of the second  wave of globalization (the second unbundling).