دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی ارزیابی ادغام مالی بازارهای سهام BRICS: تحلیل تجربی - Sage 2017

Abstract

This article examines the degree of financial integration among the equity markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) by using monthly data collected for the period 2005–2014. The study employs Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test which confirm the existence of relationship in the short and long run among the equity markets of BRICS. Further results exhibit that there exists cointegration or a long-run relationship among the equity markets, but weak cointegration, though the results of Granger causality test do not display existence of any causality among market pairs such as China–Brazil, Russia–Brazil, South Africa–Brazil, Russia–China, and South Africa–India. The results indicate that even though the financial integration among the equity markets of BRICS is on ascendance, it is yet incomplete. This work suggests harmonization of laws, regulations, and operations based on international principles and appropriate regulatory supervision among BRICS nations in order to minimize the risk of financial integration, besides further relaxing restrictions on capital account for expedited financial integration.

Conclusion

The results suggest that there is an overwhelming existence of cointegration among the equity markets of BRICS in the short as well as long run. There is only one cointegrated equation in the system which implies that cointegration among the equity markets does exist, although it is weak, and results of Granger causality test show that there is no causality among market pairs China–Brazil, Russia–Brazil, South Africa–Brazil, Russia– China, and South Africa–India. Therefore, the result reveals that even though the financial integration among the equity markets of BRICS is on an ascendance, still it is far from complete.

The article recommends for further relaxations of restrictions of capital account with a rider that full capital account convertibility should be preceded by strong macroeconomic policies, better institutions, and development of financial markets. It may be noted that the capital account is not fully opened up in any of the BRICS economies except for Russia. Harmonization of laws, regulations, and operations based on internationally acceptable norms, standards, and best practices that will facilitate greater cross-border transactions are also recommended. Appropriate regulatory supervision, however, needs to be ensured at every level so as to minimize the risks associated with the financial integration.