دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی تحلیل اثر ضربه راه آهن سریع السیر چینی بر حمل و نقل هوایی - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

As China’s high-speed railway featured by low-carbon quick prospers rapidly, railway transport has been regarded as a crucial means to replace the aviation transport. Selecting the data from 156 routes of China's 48 major cities from 2001 to 2014, the paper takes the aviation mileage as the threshold variable and the operation time as the control variable to build a panel threshold regression model. Firstly, under the consideration of the economic, demographic, environmental and railway indicators, the paper analyzes the influence of China’s railway on the aviation passenger volume and the flight number; secondly, under the condition that the railway speed is more than 250 km/h, the paper analyzes the shock effect of China’s high-speed railway on aviation transport. The conclusion shows that the higher the level of the economic development is, the more developed the aviation transport of the region will be. when the aviation mileage is below 1132 km, as the aviation mileage increases, the influence of China’s railway to the aviation transport fall into a decline; China’s high-speed railway has a positive shock effect on the aviation transport, and the shock effect reaches the maximum when the aviation mileage is from 650 to 755 km. This paper is of great practical significance to study the optimization of transportation structure.

4. Conclusions

The paper establishes the panel threshold regression model containing railway indicator, economic indicator, demographic indicator and environmental indicator, to describe the linear and nonlinear influence of China’s railway and high-speed railway on the aviation transport industry under each aviation mileage. By conducting empirical analysis, the conclusions can be summarized as follows. To the airlines in different areas, the railway and high-speed railway will generate positive shock on the aviation transport industry when the aviation mileage is small. When the aviation mileage is getting larger, China’s railway will promote the development of the aviation transport industry to some extent. Moreover, the economic development has the largest influence on the aviation industry.

As can be seen from the panel threshold regression model of China’s railway’s influence effect on the aviation industry, when the aviation mileage is lower than 490 km, China’s railway has a substitution effect to the aviation passenger volume, with an elasticity coefficient of 0.1931; when the distance between the departure and the destination is further, China’s railway will promote the development of the aviation to some extent. At the same time, when the aviation mileage is lower than 611 km, China’s railway will exert a positive shock on the flight number. When the aviation mileage is more than 611 km, the flight number at the departure and the destination will increase as the aviation mileage increases. The elasticity of the level of the economic development at the departure and the destination to the aviation industry is 0.7308 and 0.7082 respectively, making it a key factor influencing the development of the aviation.