دانلود رایگان مقاله تمایل و تقاضای گردشگری خارج از کشور

Abstract

We investigate spillover effects from sentiment and mood shocks on US outbound tourism demand from 1996 until 2013. We use the Index of Consumer Sentiment and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index as proxies for sentiment and the S&P500 as a proxy for mood. We find a moderate to high interrelationship among sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand. More importantly, sentiment and mood indicators are net transmitters of spillover shocks to outbound tourism demand. The magnitude of spillover effects sourced by sentiment and mood is time-varying and depends on certain socio-economic and environmental events. Our results have important implications for policymakers and travel agents in their efforts to predict tourism arrivals from key origin countries and to plan their tourism strategy.

Conclusion

The identification of factors that motivate or de-motivate individuals to engage in outbound tourism is of major importance for destination countries that aim to attract international visitors and realize tourism opportunities for their socio-economic development. However, a mismatch in the literature is observed between a plethora of studies which examine the macroeconomic influences of tourism demand and the limited work that explores the impact of sentiment and mood on traveling abroad. This study fills this void by examining the effect of sentiment and mood shocks on outbound tourism demand from the US, one of the key tourism-generating markets worldwide. More specifically, even though tourism demand has been widely investigated through purely economic lenses, the desire to travel is also underpinned by socio-psychological parameters, which affect consumer behavior. Our analysis considers this socio-psychological dimension, showing that mood and sentiment, viewed as internal aspects of origin markets, can also be used to explain tourism demand. The paper adopts the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover index approach and employs two indices that correspond to sentiment. Sentiment is defined as consumer’s expectations about their own financial condition and the future of the economy (as expressed by the ICS) and uncertainty toward macroeconomic policy (as expressed by the EPU index). We also use a proxy that reflects social mood, which is the S&P500 stock market index. The use of these proxies for exploring the said relationship is introduced here for the first time in tourism studies.