دانلود رایگان مقاله اثرات کمی موج گرما در عملیات شبکه برق

abstract

Climate change is projected to cause an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts. Such changes present planning and operating challenges and risks to many economic sectors. In the electricity sector, statistics of extreme events in the past have been used to help plan for future peak loads, determine associated infrastructure requirements, and evaluate operational risks, but industry-standard planning tools have yet to be coupled with or informed by temperature models to explore the impacts of the ‘‘new normal” on planning studies. For example, high ambient temperatures during heat waves reduce the output capacity and efficiency of gas-fired combustion turbines just when they are needed most to meet peak demands. This paper describes the development and application of a production cost and unit commitment model coupled to high resolution, hourly temperature data and a temperature-dependent load model. The coupled system has the ability to represent the impacts of hourly temperature on load conditions and available capacity and efficiency of combustion turbines, and therefore capture the potential impacts on system reserve and production cost. Ongoing work expands this capability to address the impacts of water availability and temperature on power grid operation.

4. Conclusions

This paper studies the potential impacts of heat waves on power grid operation. The derating effects capacity and efficiency of GT and CCGT are characterized as a function of ambient temperature. The UC formulation is then modified to incorporate the derating models. We have implemented the proposed method and evaluated heat waves impacts’ for the EIC system. The results show that heat waves could significantly affect system reserve and production cost. Considering the derating impacts on an hourly basis is thus necessary to prevent: (1) underestimation of derating impacts in heat wave periods, which may cause severe power shortages and large price spikes, and (2) overestimation of derating impacts on the production cost in regular summer days, which may cause underuse of available generation capacity. Our future research will be focused on the co-optimization of thermal and water resources to address water availability and temperature impacts on generators in long-term planning.