دانلود رایگان مقاله روش تجزیه و تحلیل نمونه کارها برای اطلاع سیاست نوآوری و پیش بینی

abstract

This paper describes a new method for combining innovation foresight, country's innovation indices, and decision analysis to identify the best combination of investments to improve national innovation systems, using Brazil as the example. The sub-pillars for human factors for innovation of the Global Innovation Index (GII) (Cornell University, INSEAD, and WIPO, 2014) are used to develop a gap coverage matrix that is analysed using the Portman method (Chow et al., 2011), to enable the identification of an optimum portfolio of investments, taking into account the level of funding for each program and any interrelationships between them. The methodology could either be refined through a foresight exercise or provide inputs to a foresight study for innovation policy that would generate threshold values for the gaps and describe their relative importance. The latter could provide an explicit and quantitative guide to decision-makers in the implementation of the foresight results. The implications of the method for FTA practice are discussed.

4. Conclusions

This paper describes a case study for a new method for combining innovation foresight, international innovation indices, and decision analysis to identify the best combination of investments to improve national innovation systems, using Brazil as the example. The implications of the method for FTA practice and evaluation and improvement of other national innovation systems are: (i) one can rank a noncomprehensive list of programs and evaluate their impact on innovation indicators, (ii) one can inform policy makers of potential uncovered gaps in innovation strategies and (iii) one can provide inputs to foresight studies aimed at improving a country's innovation ecosystem.