7. Conclusions
The waste crisis in Campania has inspired many works that have described the complex nature of the problem. However, despite the huge body of literature developed, the quantitative analysis in this regard is still limited and most of it provides useful insights into single aspects of the problem without offering a comprehensive dynamic representation of it. In this work, a system dynamic model was developed to provide a framework for a broader analysis of waste management policies.
The model was used to explore the likely impact of alternative waste management policies proposed at different institutional levels to achieve an effective solution to the waste management problem in Campania. The results suggest that waste management policies that focus on boosting waste separation, with an improvement in MBT and INC efficiency, are likely to be more sustainable and eventually achieve the target of self-sufficiency by minimising the increase in infrastructure capacity. By contrast, an increase in incineration capacity would not resolve the problem in the short term and would be associated to an increase in landfill capacity in the transitional period, thereby increasing the risk of social conflict.
The system dynamics modelling approach was useful in providing policy-making with an overview of the waste management dynamics and the policy leverages available to them for sustainable waste management. In light of this insight, policy-makers and waste managers should be aware of the potential of incentivising the population to separate waste generated to reduce the burden of waste requiring final disposal.
