5 Conclusion
Building a sustainable and climate resilient coffee sector in Puerto Rico could provide a muchneeded economic boost to the island. However, efforts to do so must be balanced with the island’s pressing need to reduce its dependency on imported food and consider the significant risks posed by climate change in the coming years. Large portions of the traditional coffee growing region of Puerto Rico may be exposed to increases in annual mean temperature within the next few decades. Global GHG emissions are currently trending toward the high end of IPCC scenarios. If this continues, the time period 2041–2070 could represent a tipping point in which mean temperatures over the entire island could exceed optimal parameters for C. arabica. Scientific consensus regarding the dynamic processes through which GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere and in turn affect global climate is still evolving. As such, specific temperature and precipitation projections may be modified in coming years; however, significant warming, drying trends are likely to remain.
As history attests, Puerto Rican coffee farmers are accustomed to adapting to both market and environmental stresses. Nevertheless, responding to the significant environmental challenges associated with climate change may require a new level of public and private cooperation designed to empower agricultural communities with the social, intellectual, and economic resources necessary to adapt. Integrated knowledge sharing networks are needed to facilitate an effectual exchange of information between farmers, scientists, and policy makers. Adaptive capacity may be further enhanced by increasing resources available to farmers and agricultural advisers regarding climate change risks, viable adaptation and mitigation strategies, education on and access to climatic data, as well as trainings on sustainable land management practices. Cooperatives can be a strong tool for providing these services by hedging individual risk to growers and providing valuable forums for peer-to-peer knowledge sharing related to specific adaptive practices that are proven to function at the local level.
Producers may also need increased economic support from local and federal government entities to begin implementing needed adaptations. This support could come in the form of incentives for sustainable practices, payments for ecosystem services, or subsidized low interest loans. Support services for the Puerto Rican coffee industry would do well to consider projected climate trends when planning financial assistance as well as research, education, and communication programming.
