دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی تغییرات آب و هوا و قهوه: ارزیابی آسیب پذیری با مدل سازی شرایط آب و هوایی آینده - اشپرینگر 2018

Abstract

Coffee production has long been culturally and economically important in Puerto Rico. However, since peaking in the late nineteenth century, harvests are near record lows with many former farms abandoned. While value-added markets present new opportunities to reinvigorate the industry, regional trends associated with climate change may threaten the ability to produce high-quality coffee. Here, we discuss the history of coffee in Puerto Rico, outline important bioclimatic parameters, and model current and future habitat suitability using statistically downscaled climate data. Model projections suggest that warming trends may surpass important temperature thresholds during the coming decades. Under high (A2) and mid-low (A1B) emission scenarios for 2011–2040, Puerto Rico is projected to exceed mean annual temperature parameters for growth of Coffea arabica. Warming and drying trends may accelerate after 2040 and could result in top producing municipalities losing 60– 84% of highly suitable growing conditions by 2070. Under the A2 scenario, Puerto Rico may only retain 24 km2 of highly suitable conditions by 2071–2099. High temperatures and low precipitation levels can result in diminished quality and yields, as well as increased exposure and sensitivity to certain insects and diseases. The climate data and models used are based on best current understanding of climate and emission interactions with results best interpreted as projected climate trends rather than predictions of future weather. Planning, innovation, and adaptation provide promising avenues to address current and future socioecological challenges while building a model of sustainable and resilient coffee production in Puerto Rico and throughout the region.

5 Conclusion

Building a sustainable and climate resilient coffee sector in Puerto Rico could provide a muchneeded economic boost to the island. However, efforts to do so must be balanced with the island’s pressing need to reduce its dependency on imported food and consider the significant risks posed by climate change in the coming years. Large portions of the traditional coffee growing region of Puerto Rico may be exposed to increases in annual mean temperature within the next few decades. Global GHG emissions are currently trending toward the high end of IPCC scenarios. If this continues, the time period 2041–2070 could represent a tipping point in which mean temperatures over the entire island could exceed optimal parameters for C. arabica. Scientific consensus regarding the dynamic processes through which GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere and in turn affect global climate is still evolving. As such, specific temperature and precipitation projections may be modified in coming years; however, significant warming, drying trends are likely to remain.

As history attests, Puerto Rican coffee farmers are accustomed to adapting to both market and environmental stresses. Nevertheless, responding to the significant environmental challenges associated with climate change may require a new level of public and private cooperation designed to empower agricultural communities with the social, intellectual, and economic resources necessary to adapt. Integrated knowledge sharing networks are needed to facilitate an effectual exchange of information between farmers, scientists, and policy makers. Adaptive capacity may be further enhanced by increasing resources available to farmers and agricultural advisers regarding climate change risks, viable adaptation and mitigation strategies, education on and access to climatic data, as well as trainings on sustainable land management practices. Cooperatives can be a strong tool for providing these services by hedging individual risk to growers and providing valuable forums for peer-to-peer knowledge sharing related to specific adaptive practices that are proven to function at the local level.

Producers may also need increased economic support from local and federal government entities to begin implementing needed adaptations. This support could come in the form of incentives for sustainable practices, payments for ecosystem services, or subsidized low interest loans. Support services for the Puerto Rican coffee industry would do well to consider projected climate trends when planning financial assistance as well as research, education, and communication programming.