دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی مدل ارزیابی سریع تلفات آسیا بر اساس آسیب پذیری زلزله - 2018

Abstract

In order to make a scientific emergency strategic decision after an earthquake, casualties need to be estimated rapidly. Asia is the most earthquake-prone continent in the world. In this paper, by spatial statistic and regressive analysis of historical Asian earthquake data from 1990 to 2012, vulnerability curves portraying the empirical relationship between the magnitude of an earthquake event and the casualty rate caused by it were created for countries of six-groups and the Quick Assessment Model of Earthquake Casualties for Asia (QAMECA) was developed. The casualty rate was defined as the ratio of the sum of injuries and deaths in an earthquake to the number of people living in the earthquake-affected region. Thirtyone earthquake events from 2013 to 2016 were used to validate this model, and the validation results were good with actual casualties of twenty-one were within the range estimated by the model and the biases of eight out of ten were less than one hundred percent. The two input parameters of QAMECA were magnitude and location of epicenter of an earthquake and earthquake casualties can be estimated immediately after earthquake has occurred. As a consequence, QAMECA can be used to estimate earthquake casualties for Asian countries and aid decision making in international emergency relief in the future.

6 Conclusion

In this paper, we collected the records of earthquakes disaster in Asia from 1990 to 2016 through the EM-DAT, ARDC and GLIDE databases and established the Asian Earthquake Disaster Database. The Quick Assessment Model of Earthquake Casualties for Asia (QAMECA) was developed, which was focused on the vulnerability curve of magnitude-casualty rate and was suitable for earthquake-prone countries in Asia. In this model we consider the impact of earthquake magnitude and intensity on casualties. We just need to input the two parameters of magnitude and location of epicenter and earthquake casualties can be estimated immediately after earthquake has occurred, so this model was very simple and practical. Thirtyone earthquake events from 2013 to 2016 were used to test this model, and the validation results were good in general. As a consequence, QAMECA can be used to estimate earthquake casualties for Asian countries and aid decision making about international emergency relief in the future. In this paper, we also use QAMECA to evaluate the vulnerability of people to earthquake in earthquake-prone countries of Asia. Fifteen countries were classified into six groups and the vulnerabilities were listed in ascending order. They were Group I (Japan and Taiwan), Group II (Indonesia and the Philippines), Group III (China), Group IV (Afghanistan and other countries), Group V (Iran) and Group VI (Turkey). Although per capita GDP of China was higher than that of the countries in Group II, its vulnerability to earthquakes was still high. This showed that the seismic performance of housing structure in China was not strong. The Chinese government should formulate some more stringent laws and regulations of seismic prevention and disaster reduction. In Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal and other countries, they should enhance public awareness of disasters and expand disaster volunteer teams. Countries that were more vulnerable to earthquakes should learn lessons from the historical earthquakes which caused heavy casualties, should learn lessons from less vulnerable countries and should continuously strengthen the earthquake prevention and disaster reduction so as to reduce the number of casualties in Asia.