دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی آرشیو آمریکا و تغییرات اقلیمی: خطرات و سازگاری - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

Climate change directly affects the future security of cultural resources. Cultural heritage and in particular, archives, are increasingly at risk of degradation due to climate change threats and triggers. This study evaluated present and future consequences of water-related climate change impacts using a mapping methodology to assess exposure of American archives to incompatible weather extremes. Susceptibility to climate change threats like sea level rise, storm surge, surface water flooding, and humidity, all influenced by a combination of temperature rise and increased precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were assessed for 1232 archival repositories. Results indicate that approximately 98.8% of archives are likely to be affected by at least one climate risk factor, though on average, most archives are at low risk of exposure (90%) when risk factors are combined. Future storm surge plus sea level rise was likely to impact 17.7% of archival repositories with 22.1% affected by only storm surge and 4.3% affected by only sea level rise (1.8- m scenario). Fewer archives were likely to be susceptible to surface water flooding (2.4%). More than 90% of archives were estimated to have a temperature change greater than ±1 °C, with 7.5% of sites likely to change by ±10 °C, and 69.5% of archives were likely to receive at least 152 mm more rainfall by 2100 over current annual averages. In terms of sustainability, developing appropriate socio-economic planning schemes that integrate cumulative exposure of archives to future climate patterns is critically important for safeguarding society and its heritage. The outcomes from the risk assessment in this study aid in the decision-making process by promoting strategic adaptation protocols and providing administrators a way to prioritize archival management goals based on the expected severity of future climate change impacts.

6. Conclusion - archive community response

Understanding the impacts of water-related climate change and climate-triggered phenomena to archival repositories is imperative for the present and future security of American cultural resources. There is an increasingly pressing need to establish strategic disaster planning initiatives that are appropriate for each archival repository and suite of local risk exposure factors. Archival records are inherently unique, and therefore not easily assigned a monetized value for insurance purposes. In other words, archives are priceless. Better coordination and cooperation between and among archival facilities will likely be required. The complete listing of American archival repositories, their locations and the potential climate change impact risks that they face (generated by the present study), could serve as a starting point for coordination and cooperation efforts organized around either geographic proximity, or similarity in risks faced. The consequences of inaction could lead to damage to national archival infrastructure and degradation and loss of the precious cultural heritage materials housed within them.

Determining the nature and potential scope of climate change and climate-triggered phenomena that threaten documentary heritage found in archives is merely a first step in a potentially lengthy process of developing management interventions and adapting professional practices. It is the hope of the authors that our analysis motivates the archival profession to consider the ways that waterrelated climate change impacts may increase future risk of exposure to extreme or incompatible climate and weather, and empowers practicing archivists to consider climate change in the management of archival collections. Furthermore, our conceptual framework and mapping methodology may serve as a template for future research both within and outside of the continental U.S. study area. In other regions of the world where risk data exist, careful and spatially explicit study of the potential impacts to archival facilities can be carried out in similar ways to the present study. As more and better climate change risk data become available, the present study can be repeated as part of an iterative process of learning and updating archival management and pre-disaster planning.