دانلود رایگان مقاله یافته ها و چالش ها در جنبه محاسباتی تجزیه و تحلیل خطر سد

Abstract

In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

5. Conclusions

New techniques for performing risk assessments are now available and provide information to support decisions for dam maintenance or rehabilitation. Since 2011, ICOLD Committee is addressing this issue from a computational perspective, and is also providing context for researchers and dam managers to understand and pay attention to decisions that are typically made in both risk analyses and in standard design techniques (i.e., frequency of events, factors of safety, breaching parameters, etc.). Incorporating risk analysis in the last three Benchmark Workshops organized by this Committee has allowed a wide approach to these techniques, covering the three risk components: loads, system response, and consequences. The high participation in all Benchmark Workshops and the number of solutions presented show the interest of the dam community in reliability methods and the application of risk analysis to dam safety. In this sense, Benchmark Workshops have promoted knowledge exchange and discussions. Recent advances in computational methods have allowed a higher development of risk analysis techniques, evolving from simple structural models to complex numerical procedures and methods. However, there is still room for improvement—for example, in properly addressing epistemic uncertainty when data are collected and risk calculations are made. Benchmark Workshops have shown that when an engineering problem (even a relatively simple, straightforward, and wellknown one) is combined with risk analysis techniques, results should be analyzed in the light of sound engineering judgement in order to obtain meaningful and useful information to inform dam safety management.