دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی ارزیابی دارایی های کربن تولید نسل فتوولتائیک در چین - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

Distributed photovoltaic generation has advantages in energy savings and emissions reduction, but its economic value is still unclear. This paper examines the carbon value of distributed photovoltaic generation, analyzes the influencing factors and further illustrates how these factors affect the value. First, it introduces the method of carbon asset valuation to distributed photovoltaic generation, which produces lower carbon emissions than most other energy sources. Second, based on mean estimates of the internal determining factors for the carbon assets of distributed photovoltaic generation, this paper provides an estimated value of the carbon assets. Third, under uncertain conditions and accounting for the time factor, it uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the sensitivity of the carbon asset value of distributed photovoltaic generation. The results indicate that (1) distributed photovoltaic generation has a carbon asset value; (2) the carbon asset value of distributed photovoltaic generation is determined by the carbon reduction level, the power generation capacity and the carbon price; and (3) carbon price fluctuations affect the carbon asset value of distributed photovoltaic generation much more than the power generation capacity. This paper provides academic support to promote carbon asset trading in distributed photovoltaic generation and for distributed photovoltaic generation to reduce carbon emissions.

 Conclusions and policy implications

This paper introduces the concept of carbon assets into distributed photovoltaic generation and applies the method of carbon asset valuation to it. This paper also analyzes the influencing factors and their sensitivities for the carbon value of distributed photovoltaic generation. The study develops the theory of carbon asset valuation and applies it to assessing of the carbon asset value of distributed photovoltaic generation. Moreover, it adds to the knowledge base regarding the social, environmental and economic value of distributed photovoltaic generation. The specific conclusions are as follows:

First, the concept of carbon assets and its valuation method, which has been used to study the extra value of forest systems, traditional electricity markets and bank credit, can also be applied to distributed photovoltaic generation. Because distributed photovoltaic generation emits little carbon dioxide in its power production process, there are advantages with regard to carbon reduction, particularly compared with traditional power generation methods such as centralized coal, petroleum or thermal power generation, which means that distributed photovoltaic generation has carbon asset value.

Second, according to the valuation model in our analysis, the carbon asset value of distributed photovoltaic generation is dependent on the carbon emissions reduction per unit of generation, the generation capacity and the public price of carbon. The carbon emissions reduction provided by distributed photovoltaic generation is determined by the carbon emissions of solar power generation minus a benchmark, which is partly a result of the carbon emissions levels of other energy-generation methods other than distributed photovoltaic generation. The generation capacity fluctuates based on the uncertainty of solar radiation and the conversion efficiency. Because fluctuations in the carbon emissions market occur frequently, the carbon price causes the carbon assets of distributed photovoltaic generation to change in a timely manner and to have public value.