دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی داده های سنجش از دور و مدل رشد شهری SLEUTH: ابزار پشتیبانی تصمیم گیری - اشپرینگر 2018

Abstract:

Sri Lanka is experiencing speedy urbanization by converting the agriculture land and other natural land cover into built-up land. The urban population of Sri Lanka is expected to reach to 60% by 2030 from 14% in 2010. The rapid growth in urban population and urban areas in Sri Lanka may cause serious socioeconomic disparities, if they are not handled properly. Thus, planners in Sri Lanka are in need of information about past and future urban growth patterns to plan a better and sustainable urban future for Sri Lanka. In this paper, we analyzed the characteristics of past land use and land cover trends in Matara City of Sri Lanka from 1980 to 2010 to assess the historic urban dynamics. The land use change detection analysis based on remote sensing datasets reveal that the conversion of homestead/garden and paddy into urban land is evident in Matara City. The historic urban trends are projected into the near future by using SLEUTH urban growth model to identify the hot spots of future urbanization and as well as the urban growth patterns in Matara City up to the basic administrative level, i.e., Grama Niladari Divisions (GND). The urban growth simulations for the year 2030 reveal that 29 GNDs out of 66 GNDs in Matara City will be totally converted into urban land. Whereas, 28 GNDs will have urban land cover from 75% to 99% by 2030. The urban growth simulations are further analyzed with respect to the proposed Matara city development plan by the Urban Development Authority (UDA) of Sri Lanka. The results show that the UDA’s city development plan of Matara will soon be outpaced by rapid urbanization. Based on the calibration and validation results, the SLEUTH model proved to be a useful planning tool to understand the near future urbanization of Sri Lankan cities.

5 Conclusions

In this study, the SLEUTH urban growth model is calibrated and tested for the first time to a Sri Lankan city. The urban growth simulation form any urban growth modeling exercise should provide relevant information to the planners to device sustainable development strategies. Thus, this study investigated the appropriateness of loose-coupling approach to understand the urban growth dynamics and effectiveness of urban development plans using SLEUTH urban growth model, remote sensing data and GIS. The results of this study identified unsustainable urban land transitions processes such as conversion of paddy land into urban and the loss of forest land in Matara City and suggesting the need for strict implementation of development control rules to protect the forest and paddy lands from encroachment. The results of SLEUTH model simulation show, the urban growth of Matara will pose a serious threat to the wild life in Kiralakele wildlife reserve and Kekanadura forest reserve by 2030. The proposed southern highway extension project form Godagama to Hambantota and railway track from Matara to Kataragama may offer better and reduced transportation costs, and enough infrastructure facilities, which are not available presently in countryside. However, it will intensify the negative effects of urbanization such as increasing anthropogenic land use conversion, dense built-up areas, air pollution and urban heat island, etc., upon the local climate of the city. Since, the SLEUTH model effectively captured the dynamics of Matara City, it may be used as an urban planning decision support tool by the Sri Lankan planners to understand the urban growth dynamics to plan sustainable urban Sri Lanka.