دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی مدلسازی انرژی تجدید پذیر با استفاده از نقشه شناختی فازی قابل تامل - اشپرینگر 2017

Abstract

Renewable energy sources (solar, wind, tidal, etc.), which are unlimited and have a fair distribution in the world, are an alternative to the depleting fossil fuels (coil, petroleum, natural gas, etc.). It is necessary to identify the right technologies and methods to make more effective use of renewable energy sources including uncertainty and irregularity in resource creation. In this study, dynamic environmental factors affecting the production of solar and wind energy are defined and the relations among them are linguistically expressed by the experts. These linguistic relationships among factors and their initial states are assessed by new developed hesitant linguistic cognitive map method that is an extension of hesitant fuzzy sets and fuzzy cognitive map. Relational development between factors was observed by simulating the model according to the initial condition of the factors. Thus, the model helps investors and governments to direct their solar and wind energy investment decisions.

Conclusion

Renewable energy is an important alternative to conventional energy whose sources are finite and becoming expensive in time. The tendency to the renewable energy increases the importance of the determining right energy generation technology in a dynamic environment. To deal with this kind of complex problems in the energy sector, we applied the new HFCMs model that is an extension of hesitant fuzzy sets and fuzzy cognitive map.

In this study, the causal relationships among concepts in solar and wind energy generation are described by linguistic term sets that help expert to express their evaluations with natural language. These linguistic terms are transformed into trapezoidal fuzzy membership functions using HFLTS and OWA operations. Trapezoidal fuzzy membership functions are defuzzified with the weighted average method and transformed to [−1, 1] interval as a weight matrix. Weight matrix and the initial state of the factors are included the iteration process within hyperbolic tangent threshold function in Eq. (3) until convergence. Converge values represent the steady state of the factors in the model.

In the sample applications, three scenarios are designed according to the current situation of the solar and wind energy systems and verified the accuracy of the theoretical energy model and the usability of the new generated HFCM tool. Simulation processes show that incentive and regulation that refer the support and international obligation of governments have the most important impact on new solar and wind energy generation capacities. However, technical applicability for solar and wind systems that are transmitter factors have a less important impact on new green energy systems. Simulation results also show that the affecting and being affected of the transmitter (renewable energy regulations and technical applicability for solar and wind energy) and global concepts (energy demand, energy supply, and energy price) take a long time because of their long path lengths within concepts.