دانلود رایگان مقاله پیش بینی نوآوری بخش انسانی اروپا شناسایی الگو ظهور بخش مختلف و مسائل مربوط به سیاست

abstract

The research presented in this paper pursues two main goals. Empirically, it aims to explore sectoral futures at European level in a range of different sectors (automotive, construction, textile, KIBS, wholesale & retail), to identify cross-cutting patterns of sectoral change, and to highlight implications that these may raise for European innovation policy. In order to do this in a systematic manner, it also has a conceptual and methodological ambition, namely to devise a sectoral innovation foresight methodology that builds explicitly on concepts derived from sectoral innovation systems approaches. This theory-led methodology allows exploring and interpreting future developments at sectoral level in a coherent and comparable manner. Technologies and knowledge, actors and organisations, user needs and demand, as well as institutional and policy frameworks are taken into account; elements that need to co-evolve for any innovation system scenario to unfold. This conceptual framework is translated into a sector innovation foresight methodology that was used to guide a multi-sector foresight initiative. Based on a meta-analysis of insights from five different sectors, cross-sectoral patterns of future change as well as cross-cutting policy issues are pointed out. Three areas of cross-cutting changes have been identified: a) the shift from products to systems and services, b) blurring boundaries between sectors, and c) sectoral and cross-sectoral integration of sustainability demands, and the governance of interactions between sectors. Foresight projects at sectoral level have been conducted rarely as compared to technology-centered or societalissue centered foresights or retrospective sectoral innovation system studies. By relying explicitly on a theoretical framework of sectoral innovation systems, this paper explores the potential of better linking innovation theory to policy- and strategy-oriented foresight.

5. Conclusions

The purpose of this paper has been twofold, namely a) to outline the conceptual and methodological features of Sectoral Innovation Foresight approach, underpinned theoretically by innovation systems thinking, and b) to illustrate the benefits of a systematic multi-sector foresight by extracting some cross-cutting insights generated. These cross-cutting insights have been presented in a stylised manner, but they were helpful to demonstrate that cross-cutting findings open up the possibility to devise cross-cutting policy inroads. The Sectoral Innovation Foresight methodology suggests that sector-level insights from foresight can indeed be translated meaningfully into cross-cutting policies and strategies.