- مبلغ: ۸۶,۰۰۰ تومان
- مبلغ: ۹۱,۰۰۰ تومان
Ethylene production increases rapidly in recent years in China, which promotes the growth of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Ethylene industry is a technology-intensive industry, for which steam cracking, coal to olefins and methanol to olefins are three main production ways. In view of energy-efficient and lowcarbon technology selection, this study aims to find a suitable roadmap to achieve the targets under current policies for China’s ethylene industry by utilizing National Energy Technology model. With this roadmap, we find that the policy goal for steam cracking could be achieved and the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of producing one-ton ethylene could decrease effectively. Specifically, for producing per ton ethylene, energy consumption could be reduced by 16.8% and 17.1% in 2030 compared to 2015 for steam cracking and coal to olefins respectively, and the values of CO2 emissions are 18.1% and 14.8%. In addition, this study makes a discussion about how to achieve a more sustainable development for ethylene industry in China and it is found that both of energy consumption and CO2 emissions could be reduced by about 20% in 2030 compared to the reference scenario. It is proposed that structure of feedstock in steam cracking could be optimized with more light materials and ethylene producing ways need to be planned well. Especially, environmental effect of coal to olefins should be taken into consideration in its process of development. Steam cracking with ethane and methanol to olefins with imported methanol could be encouraged as they can reduce energy consumption and CO2 emission directly.
This study aims to find a roadmap to reach the existing policy targets and explore a more sustainable development path for China’s ethylene industry. To this end, a bottom-up method named NET-Chemical model is developed to describe the three-level decision making process for technology selection in ethylene industry, along with the goal of total cost minimization. Several conclusions can be drawn.
(1) Following the existing national and industrial policies for ethylene industry, we find a roadmap for ethylene production till 2030 whose key parameters are shown in Table 6. In terms of production structure, share of CTO&MTO will increase in future while steam cracking will still be the main way to produce ethylene in China, whose share will be more than 70% till 2030. For steam cracking, the cracking material tends to be lighter and ethane and LHC will account for more in future. For CTO, coal water slurry gasification technology and pulverized coal gasification will be further promoted. For methanol to olefins process in CTO and MTO, the share of DMTO II technology will be increased to about 46% in 2030 according to technology selection.
(2) Total amount of energy consumption and CO2 emission in China’s ethylene industry would keep increasing attributing to the rising demand. Following the current polices in BAU, energy consumption would be 64.5 Mtce in 2020 and 83.7 Mtce in 2030, while the amount of CO2 emissions would reach to 143.3 Mt and 186.5 Mt in 2020 and 2030, respectively. CTO is the biggest contributor for total energy consumption and carbon emissions, which accounts for about 70%. In terms of energy consumption of producing per ton ethylene, it would decrease from 0.854 tce/t to 0.711 tce/t for steam cracking, from 8.26 tce/t to 6.84 tce/t for CTO and from 0.89 tce/t to 0.81 tce/t for MTO during 2015–2030. Especially, the energy consumption per unit ethylene target for steam cracking in 2020 mentioned in the national plan could be reached with this roadmap.