دانلود رایگان مقاله کربن سازی در استراتژی های رشد سبز؟ مورد کره جنوبی

Abstract

The win-win opportunities connected to green growth are appealing to academics and policy makers alike, but empirical evaluations about the effectiveness of green growth policies are still scattered. Taking South Korea as case study, which set up a highly ambitious green growth program in 2009, our research casts light on the extent to which the Korean Green Growth Strategy has been effective in decarbonizing the economy. Our methodology combines decomposition analysis and econometrics with a review of energy and climate policies, including related structural changes. On the short term (2008- 2012), most of the drivers displayed an enhancing effect on CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, with GDP per capita being the strongest driver. From a historical perspective (1971-2012), findings reveal that important drivers, such as energy and CO2 intensity even worsened their effects during the first years under the Green Growth Strategy. Regression statistics revealed that GDP per capita was in fact the driver with the most explanatory power for CO2 emissions, followed by energy intensity. The Korean policy mix of modest government support to low-carbon energy technologies and a lack of complementary pricing policies did not deliver the targeted emissions reduction, at least in the shortterm. Despite recent policy developments, i.e. the introduction of a renewable portfolio standard in 2012 and an emissions trading system in 2015, several key policy challenges for decarbonization remain.

5. Conclusions

Korea’s green growth ambitions, and in particular its green stimulus spending, have been frequently referred to as good practice in the international policy arena. Our findings, however, do not fully support this reading of the impacts of the Korean Green Growth Strategy. One key macro-economic indicator of green growth, namely CO2 emissions from energy, reveals a low performance, i.e. CO2 emissions increased significantly. We neither observed a change in trends when decomposing CO2 emissions into various drivers in the short-term (2008 – 2012), nor when comparing estimated short-term trends to the historical long-term drivers of CO2 emissions. While it is impossible to attribute driver-specific changes in CO2 emissions to general policy programs, it is clear that the National Green Growth Strategy of Korea between 2009 and 2013 has not yet been successful in reversing the long-term trend of increasing CO2 emissions. The targeted peak of emission in 2014 has most likely not occurred, yet.