دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی تحلیل مقایسه ای روش های MCDM برای رتبه بندی منابع انرژی تجدید پذیر - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are becoming increasingly popular in solving energy selection problems because these problems involve multiple and often conflicting criteria. This paper presents comparative analysis of ranking renewable energy sources (RES) for electricity generation in Taiwan using four MCDM methods - WSM, VIKOR, TOPSIS, and ELECTRE. The Shannon entropy weight method is used to assess the importance of each criterion for the ranking of RES. After that, four MCDM methods are utilized for quantitative evaluation to rank all available RE alternatives. From the weights estimation results, efficiency is the first priority in all evaluation criteria, followed by job creation, operation, and maintenance cost. The purpose of this study is to rank the priorities of various RES and propose recommendations for Taiwan's RE development. The ranking results show that hydro is the best alternative in Taiwan, followed by solar, wind, biomass and geothermal. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of the weights was conducted considering the ranking results heavily depend on the criteria weight. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when financial or technical aspects are focused upon, hydropower is the best RES because its technology is the most mature and the cost is the lowest in Taiwan. In addition, from an environmental perspective, wind energy is the best choice, and from the social perspective, solar PV is the best choice. The findings of this study can provide useful information to energy decision makers and serve as a reference for Taiwan's energy policy.

Discussion and conclusion

This paper reviewed the related literature on RE studies to identify ten criteria and used four MCDM (WSM, TOPSIS, VIKOR and ELECTRE) methods to rank the priority of five RES in Taiwan. The data were collected from various official institutions or related studies. The results of analysis show that technology is the most important factor for the evaluation of RES, followed by financial, environmental, and social factors. In addition, efficiency, job creation, and O&M cost are identified as the first, second, and third priorities within all criteria. These results imply that the development of Taiwan's RE should consider whether the technology is mature and stable, and power generation is efficient enough. It is necessary to evaluate the capability of electricity generation to decrease the reliance on fossil fuel. Additionally, cost is another critical factor for decision makers in the evaluation of a RE program. However, by improving the RE technology, the cost will be decreased. The environmental factor is becoming increasingly important due to the rise of environmental protection awareness in recent years. The social factor is usually the last consideration. The calculated weight of each criterion obtained in this paper is partially consistent with the results of past studies using AHP subjective weights. Ahmad and Tahar [22] found efficiency is considered to be an important criterion, while social acceptance and land use criteria are less important. Except for land use, their weight rankings are consistent with ours. Theodorou et al. [81] indicated that investment cost is the most important criterion, followed by efficiency, technological implementation potential, maturity and people's acceptance. Their results also indicate that efficiency is important and residents’ acceptance is the least important.