ترجمه مقاله ارتباط عدم قطعیت آب و هوا با ذینفعان با استفاده از روش سناریو - نشریه وایلی

Adecade ago, Shackley and Wynne (1996) noted: It is frequently assumed that scientific uncertainty is a problem for environmental policy. Many decision makers and advisory scientists believe that policy ideally should rest on reliable, robust, and hence certain scientific knowledge. (p. 275) Today, with the development of complex systems science as well as the focus on long-term sustainability, we are now aware that additional science cannot always provide all of the answers. As a result, natural resource managers and policy makers must find ways to move forward despite the presence of uncertain future conditions and the associated risks. Unfortunately, the presence of any uncertainty has been, and often still is, an excuse for delaying action. This is partly due to the belief that scientific certainty is a prerequisite for building consensus (Shackley and Wynne 1996) and negotiations are delayed until more information is available. The climate change issue provides a prime example of this effect. In various political circles and organizations, much of the focus has been on how to reduce the level of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Reduction of some of the uncertainty is reasonable, but uncertainties that are inherent to the system cannot be eliminated. Once inherent uncertainties dominate, then the focus should shift away from reducing uncertainties and move on to clarifying and communicating what is known about the system and determining effective and robust responses. The following section defines inherent uncertainty and identifies common sources. Next, some of the challenges in communicating uncertainty to stakeholders are described and a scenario-based approach is presented as a means of overcoming these challenges. A case study in which collaborative modeling conveyed information about the potential impacts of climate change on water supply and demand is provided for illustration. The paper concludes with recommendations for both messengers and recipients of information containing uncertainties