دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی شبیه سازی سناریو و ارزیابی جامع برای ظرفیت حمل و نقل منابع آب در چین - الزویر 2019

ABSTRACT

The quantity and quality of water resources are of great importance in maintaining urban socio-economic development. Accordingly, substantial research has been conducted on the concept of the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC). In this study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and system dynamics (SD) models were combined to construct a multi-criteria evaluation system of the WRCC and a socio-economic/water resources SD model for Xi'an. The developmental trends of the society, economy, water supply/demand, and wastewater discharge were obtained from 2015 to 2020 using five scenarios designed for distinct purposes; these scenarios and trends were comprehensively evaluated using a combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses. The results indicated that the WRCC (0.32 in 2020) in Xi'an will shift from a normal to a poor state if the current social development pattern is maintained; therefore, we conclude that the socio-economic development of Xi'an is unsustainable. However, under a comprehensive scheme, the WRCC index (0.64 in 2020) will increase by 48% compared with the WRCC index under a business-as-usual scenario. Further, some practical suggestions, including the promotion of industrial reforms and the improvement of water-use efficiency and recycling policies, were provided for improving the regional WRCC.

Conclusions

In this paper, according to the characteristics of the WRCC in Xi'an, an assessment system incorporating 16 individual indexes was established by the AHP method. Then, a socio-economic/water resources compound model consisting of six subsystems was constructed. After performing a validity test and a sensitivity analysis, the test results demonstrated that the model adequately captured the essence of the integrated water resources system in Xi'an. We formulated five scenarios to simulate the dynamic trend of the WRCC under different social development modes. After performing calculations, analyses and comparisons of the simulation results, we chose the optimal scenario. The presented analysis allowed us to draw the following conclusions. First, the SD model was used to simulate the outcomes of five different designed scenarios. The results indicated that the current social development pattern in Xi'an cannot meet the requirements necessary for sustainable urban development. The HES scenario highlighted the promotion of economic development, but it exhibited a dismal performance with regard to improving the WRCC, which was certainly not a suitable solution. In terms of economic development, the RISS scenario was slightly inferior to the HES scenario; specifically, the improvement of the WRCC was better than the abovementioned scenarios, yet the improvement was still not sufficient. The REPS scenario focused only on the protection of the water environment and the conservation of resources while ignoring economic growth. Combining the advantages of the above scenarios, the CS scenario significantly improved the WRCC in Xi'an, and the WRCC index achieved a positive carrying status. Second, agricultural water consumption currently accounts for an excessive proportion of the total water demand. The key to changing this situation is improving the irrigation efficiency and increasing the amount of investment in the agricultural irrigation infrastructure. Third, an adjustment of the industrial structure in Xi'an is urgently needed; accordingly, the government should not emphasize economic growth. In contrast, accelerating the development of the tertiary industry is a feasible solution for reducing urban water consumption.