دانلود رایگان مقاله مقایسه مدل سازی انتشار تاخیر در شبکه ترافیکی هوایی اروپا

abstract

Complex Systems are those in which a very large number of elements interact, usually in a non-linear fashion, producing emergent behaviors that are typically difficult to predict. Air transportation systems fall in this category, with a large number of aircraft following a pre-scheduled program. It has been shown that it is possible to understand and forecast delays propagation in these systems. The objective of this analysis is to compare the modeling in the US and in the European air traffic networks, analyzing the propagation of delays due to failures in the schedule or to disturbances. We use two different agent based models recently developed to simulate the delays propagation and assess the effect of disruptions in the networks (US and ECAC areas). Our results show that a first-come first-served protocol managing the flights produces larger congestion when compared with an ATFM (Air Traffic Flow Management) slots priority system.

4. Conclusions

.The US and the European networks have been compared in the past literature regarding flight performance. As happens in the examples selected in this paper, congestion in average delay per delayed flight, total delay or even the size of the congested airport clusters tend to be larger in the US than in the ECAC area. Some of the reasons for these differences lie in the diverse ways of managing flights on both sides of the Atlantic. Most of the US airports implement a first-come first-served protocol when handling flights, while in Europe a system based on ATFM slots is used. Comparing both systems in the same conditions is not a practical option in reality since changing the priority method would have important associated costs. This is precisely the kind of task that can be undertaken using modeling. In silico simulations allow the change of the prioritizing method and to assess the relevance of the impact. Here we have used two models developed to reproduce reactionary delay propagation in Europe and in the US. One model uses ATFM slots and the other first-come first-served priorities. The models have been simplified and run on the very same schedule samples: one from the US and another from Europe. Our results show that flight management based on FCFS produces larger delays with the two data samples. The ATFM slot framework may look more rigid but it seems to protect slightly better the system from the development of large congestion. The price to pay is, however, a more involved flight management.