دانلود رایگان مقاله تجزیه مصرف آب صنعتی در سال 2003 تا 2012 تیانجین چین

abstract

This study analyzed the contributions of output, technological, and structural factors to industrial water use. Using Tianjin, a National Water-Saving City in China, as a case study, we adopted the refined Laspeyres and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index models to decompose the driving forces of industrial water use changes. The decomposition results of both models show that output and technology have long-term, stable effects on industrial water use in Tianjin. Output stimulates water use, leading to an average annual growth of 7700 × 104 m3 , while technology inhibits water use, with an average annual reduction of 7900 × 104 m3 . However, the effects of structure on industrial water use are not stable. During the study period, the stimulation and inhibition of industrial water use alternated; however, stimulation was dominant after 2008, implying increased partiality of the industrial structure toward high water use. The results of the study contrasted the hypothesis that Tianjin's primary goal in restructuring local industries over the past decade has been the achievement of water use efficiency. Reduced water use may have resulted .from Tianjin's development with targets other than water-savings.

5. Discussion and conclusion

As analyzed above, industrial water use is subject to multiple driving forces, shaped by combinations of industrial scale expansion, technological advances, industrial restructuring, and water availability. At different times, these driving forces vary in intensity, leading to complex trends in industrial water use. Only by decomposing the driving forces can we accurately grasp these trends and make scientific predications. In this study, we decomposed the driving forces of industrial water use in Tianjin using the refined Laspeyres model and LMDI model and compared the results of the two. The decomposition results of the two models agree, with some difference in particular years. We therefore can conclude that the two models are applicable to the quantitative analysis of industrial water use changes.