دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی پیش بینی ورشکستگی در بخش کشاورزی: درس هایی از روش های کمی و کیفی - الزویر 2018

ABSTRACT

This study used the complexity theory to present an asymmetric and critical thinking approach. Its main purpose is fsQCA implementation for bankruptcy prediction of agribusiness entities and comparison with classical quantitative methods. The research comprises three phases: (1) calculation and evaluation of the predictive abilities and classification errors of 35 selected quantitative bankruptcy methods, both domestic and foreign, namely, multivariate discriminant analysis and logistic regression models; (2) fsQCA implementation for bankruptcy prediction of 14 agribusiness entities, comprising conditions that are typical of the agribusiness sector and financial and macroeconomic data; and (3) indication and comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of fsQCA against a background of classical bankruptcy prediction models. The findings indicate that managers should carefully build or/and select existing methods of bankruptcy prediction, and adjust them to the type, size, and risk of business activity.

6. Conclusions

The strengths of qualitative and quantitative analysis can be combined if we present cases as configurations of conditions, rather than sui generis or as the simple product of independent variables. Unlike more quantitative methods that are based on correlation, fsQCA seeks to establish logical connections between combinations of causal conditions and outcome, the result being rules that summarize the sufficiency between the subsets of all of the possible combinations of the causal conditions and the outcome. Each rule is a possible path from the causal conditions to the outcome.

One of the central goals of economic science is to generalize, and economists are trained to be wary of drawing general conclusions from a single case. Many studies of cross-case patterns appear to be based exclusively on the analysis of large Ns when, in fact, they are case studies.

This study thus contributes to theory and business practice, indicating the applicability of fsQCA to assess combinations of causal conditions that lead to corporate bankruptcy in the agribusiness sector. The fsQCA research shows that illiquidity and lack of profitability lead to the outcome (bankruptcy), and allows the inclusion of qualitative reasons for bankruptcy assessment. On the other hand, discriminant analysis focuses mainly on financial indicators. This study confirms Hypothesis 1 in that the simultaneous implementation of both quantitative and qualitative approaches brings broader and more valuable results for practitioners than using these two approaches separately.