دانلود رایگان مقاله مدل برای تحلیل سودآوری توسعه شبکه در مسافت های طولانی

Abstract

Intercontinental direct flights are key for securing foreign investment and developing trade, however, traditional dog-bone airline networks exclude secondary airports from this type of traffic and contribute to uneven regional economic development. New aircraft technology and hub-bypassing strategies can allow non-hub secondary airports to connect to intercontinental destinations. By developing an Integrated Model for Forecasting New Routes we analyse two routes of the Barcelona–East Asian market and evaluate if new aircraft technology can be a game changer for European secondary airports. Results show that direct non-stop services from Barcelona to Tokyo could be viable with the Boeing 787-8, but not with the previous technology (i.e., Boeing 777). The Barcelona–Beijing route shows some demand limitations and would only allow for some seasonal services. The findings show important connectivity prospects for secondary European airports.

5. Discussion and conclusions

The findings of this paper show that a direct non-stop operation in the Barcelona–Tokyo market could be possible with the Boeing 787 family. But in order to find out whether new aircraft technology can be a game changer in relation to older aircraft, we repeated the analysis for the following two scenarios. The first scenario considers JAL operating a Boeing 777-200ER with a 245 seat cabin (56 business, 40 premium economy and 149 economy); this aircraft is usually used in the low-demand routes to Europe, namely Tokyo-Haneda to Paris and Tokyo-Narita to Moscow, and has been used for some charter flights to Barcelona during the last five years. The second scenario considers ANA operating a Boeing 777-300ER with a 247 seat cabin (8 first, 77 business, 24 premium economy and 138 economy); this aircraft was flown by ANA to Munich before switching to the B787. Results are reported in Fig. 6. The higher capacity of the B777 and lower efficiency, compared to the B787, makes it impossible for it to break-even in the period considered. Overall, we can conclude that the Boeing 787 is able to reduce trip costs by 15% on average, which allows for operations in thinner markets, although for the Tokyo example this aircraft can reduce operating costs by up to 32%.