دانلود رایگان مقاله سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، واردات خارجی و رشد اقتصادی

ABSTRACT

This empirical research paper focuses on establishing a relationship between external determinants and economic growth of Pakistan economy. Empirical analyses are carried out with time series econometric techniques using data over the period of 1977-2013. The main finding is that external determinants such as foreign remittances, foreign direct investment, and foreign imports matter from a growth perspective. Foreign remittances and foreign direct investment have a significant positive role in the growth process of Pakistan economy. Furthermore, it is found that foreign imports have adversely influenced the economic growth of Pakistan. The study recommends that policy makers shall take appropriate steps to increase the inflow of both foreign remittances and foreign direct investment in order to achieve the long run economic growth.

6. Conclusion

The main purpose of this paper was to see whether or not external determinants impact economic growth. The study focuses on the economy of Pakistan and has utilized data over the period 1977-2013. The empirical analyses are carried out using the recently developed ARDL approach to cointegration. The study found that external determinants matter for achieving the long-run economic growth. Remittances and FDI have improved the economic growth of Pakistan economy. This could be the case of other developing countries as well. However, Pakistan has a distinct position among the developing countries as our growth process is tightly linked with the foreign inflow of investment as well as remittances. Around 7 million of Pakistan’s workers are working abroad mostly in Gulf countries and sending a huge amount of remittances that are accounting to 95 per cent of overall foreign trade deficit. Therefore, policy makers in Pakistan in particular and in other developing countries could take appropriate policy actions to attract FDI and increase the outflow of workers. Doing this will eventually help the developing countries as well as Pakistan to achieve the long-run economic growth. The results of the study are consistent with the prior empirical research. Besides, the study found a negative relationship between imports and economic growth in the context of Pakistan economy. The underlying reasons are difficult to pin down; however, the structural composition of imports shows that Pakistan is an oil-deficit country spending around 30 per cent of imports to oil-related products. Besides, the composition of imports, measurement issues and data related problems may be the possible reasons. The paper recommends that the economy of Pakistan shall attract FDI through business friendly environment, resolve the issue of power shortages that damages the economic growth around 3 to 4 per cent per annum, and ensure a better law and order conditions that will boost the confidence of the foreign investors. And most importantly, Pakistan should attract the foreign Pakistani businessmen just like India and China have done; this will give a strong base to sustainable growth. Strategies should be made in such a way to sustain the already good inflow of worker’s remittances that amount to 16 billion dollars in the year 2014. Pakistan stands in the top 10 countries that are receiving a huge amount of remittances. However, policy makers should be conscious of the usage of this hard earned money. Imports also play a very critical role in the economic development of any country, especially if they have new technologies, ideas, capital goods and equipment. As Zhang and Zou (1995) suggested, new technological transfers reinforce the economic growth in the developing countries. Pakistan should also pay attention to the imports of new technologies and capital goods instead of consumable items.