- مبلغ: ۸۶,۰۰۰ تومان
- مبلغ: ۹۱,۰۰۰ تومان
By using the case of the high-speed railway scheduled to open in 2027 in Japan, this study examines whether the value of transport innovation is capitalized in land prices immediately after the construction plan is announced. We adopt a hedonic approach to measure value, using balanced panel data on residential land prices from 2008 to 2015 in Japan. We find that residential land prices where the time distance to the Tokyo metropolitan area reduces rose, except where the population is decreasing. This result implies that the benefits are capitalized in land prices when demand to shorten the time distance exists.
This study investigated whether the benefits of the LCS, a high-speed railway in Japan scheduled to open in 2027, were capitalized in land prices immediately after the announcement of the construction decision. We found that residential land prices in the area that reduced the time distance to the Tokyo metropolitan area rose, except in the area where the population is decreasing. This result implies that benefits are capitalized in land prices when there is demand for time distance shortening immediately after the information disclosure.
This study confirmed that estimation problems such as location selection bias and the timing of the treatment must be addressed in impact evaluations. Because the construction of infrastructure is always accompanied by location selection bias, the estimation results in many cases can be overestimated if not carefully controlled for. The findings of this study indicated that sample selection bias may occur when samples are concentrated spatially, even when exploiting a geographical experiment for location selection. Furthermore, the presented findings also indicated the difficulty interpreting the estimation results without considering the starting timing of the treatment. In particular, this problem is serious when the outcome is a stock price and the theoretical background of the analysis is consumer utility maximization. Although infrastructure construction takes a long time, rational consumers take action when construction information is disclosed if its effect is obvious. If the analysis had focused only on the timing after the construction information was disclosed (i.e., a comparative analysis of before and after starting the railway service), it could not have measured the direct effect of the railway.