دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی اثرات امنیتی انرژی یک خشکسالی شدید در آینده سیستم انرژی فنلاند - الزویر 2018

abstract

Finland updated its Energy and Climate Strategy in late 2016 with the aim of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, increasing energy self-sufficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Concurrently, the issue of generation adequacy has grown more topical, especially since the record-high demand peak in Finland in January 2016. This paper analyses the Finnish energy system in years 2020 and 2030 by using the EnergyPLAN simulation tool to model whether different energy policy scenarios result in a plausible generation inadequacy. Moreover, as the Nordic energy system is so heavily dependent on hydropower production, we model and analyse the impacts of a severe drought on the Finnish energy system. We simulate hydropower availability according to the weather of the worst drought of the last century (in 1939e1942) with Finnish Environment Institute's Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System and we analyse the indirect impacts via reduced availability of electricity imports based on recent realised dry periods. Moreover, we analyse the environmental impacts of hydropower production during the drought and peak demand period and the impacts of climate change on generation adequacy in Finland. The results show that the scenarios of the new Energy and Climate Strategy result in an improved generation adequacy comparing to the current situation. However, a severe drought similar to that experienced in 1940s could cause a serious energy security threat.

5. Discussion and conclusions

We have analysed the Finnish energy system and its development in different energy policy scenarios, simulated hydropower availability during a period of severe drought in Finland and estimated the indirect impacts of a drought in Finland's neighbouring countries. Moreover, we have simulated generation adequacy in the analysed scenarios in 2020 and 2030 with the EnergyPLAN simulation tool by applying the implications of a severe drought during otherwise similar conditions as were witnessed during the record-high demand peak in Finland in early 2016. Furthermore, we have briefly analysed the environmental impacts of hydropower regulation during drought and peak demand and the impacts of climate change on the Finnish energy system.

Excluding the impacts of a drought, our results show that in both of the scenarios presented in the new Energy and Climate Strategy of Finland, Basic and Policy, the stresses related to generation adequacy will ease by 2030 comparing to those in 2016. This is mainly due to the deployment of two new nuclear power plants, Olkiluoto 3 and Hanhikivi 1, and the planned new transmission lines between Finland and Sweden. These new power plants and cross-border transmission lines improve generation adequacy more than what the forecasted growth in the annual demand peak and the reduction in thermal power capacity in Finland affect in total. As regards the Alternative scenario with inter alia no investment in Hanhikivi 1 or in the third transmission line between Northern Finland and Sweden, the stresses related to generation adequacy will grow significantly by 2030.