دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی سیستم های پشتیبانی تصمیم گیری بر پایه ی مدل برای تغییرات استفاده از زمین - اشپرینگر 2018

Abstract:

Hydrological models are often linked with other models in cognate sciences to understand the interactions among climate, earth, water, ecosystem, and human society. This paper presents the development and implementation of a decision support system (DSS) that links the outputs of hydrological models with real-time decision making on social-economic assessments and land use management. Discharge and glacier geometry changes were simulated with hydrological model, water availability in semiarid environments. Irrigation and ecological water were simulated by a new commercial software MIKE HYDRO. Groundwater was simulated by MODFLOW. All the outputs of theses hydrological models were taken as inputs into the DSS in three types of links: regression equations, stationary data inputs, or dynamic data inputs as the models running parallel in the simulation periods. The DSS integrates the hydrological data, geographic data, social and economic statistical data, and establishes the relationships with equations, conditional statements and fuzzy logics. The programming is realized in C++. The DSS has four remarkable features: (1) editable land use maps to assist decision-making; (2) conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources; (3) interactions among water, earth, ecosystem, and humans; and (4) links with hydrological models. The overall goal of the DSS is to combine the outputs of scientific models, knowledge of experts, and perspectives of stakeholders, into a computer-based system, which allows sustainability impact assessment within regional planning; and to understand ecosystem services and integrate them into land and water management.

4 Conclusions

A model based DSS was developed to assist the stakeholders with decision-making on sustainable land management and socio-economic assessments in the oases along the Tarim River. The development and implementation of DSS involves knowledge of experts in interdisciplinary research aspects, as well as the experiences and feedbacks from a large number of local stakeholders. The DSS has notable features in a number of research aspects.

(1) Editable land use maps in the GUI were developed to assist stakeholders of decision-making on land use management. The clicking and drawing on the land use map provide stakeholders a catchy approach for examining land management alternatives. If the scenario is kept business as usual in the simulation, then natural vegetation, riparian forest and grassland would suffer varying degrees of deterioration in the near and far future. In the upper, middle and lower reaches, the decay of nature vegetation are obvious.